428 Park St · Crockett, TX 75835

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1900 $62/sqft · 25% below area Est $120k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of potential for a first-time homebuyer, investor, or someone looking to downsize. The carport has been converted into a versatile space that could serve as a den, game room, or additional living area. Situated on a spacious lot with large, mature trees, the property is conveniently located near a local park and baseball field, offering a pleasant neighborhood setting. While the home does need some repairs, it presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity.

Key facts

• Versatile space
• Local park
• Large mature trees

Tags

• CONVERTED CARPORT
• VERSATILE SPACE
• LARGE MATURE TREES
• LOCAL PARK
• BASEBALL FIELD
• PLEASANT NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.2% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,824
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -37.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 E Bell Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-2%)	2mo	$129,500	$110	65
1314 Hooks St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+2%)	1mo	$162,500	$132	64
1403 Sanders	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (+0%)	5mo	$150,000	$124	63
107 Thomas St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,107 (-8%)	3mo	$79,999	$72	60
406 E Bonham St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-0%)	16mo	$124,900	$104	55
1312 Hooks St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+5%)	12mo	$195,000	$155	52
605 S Fair St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,107 (-8%)	16mo	$69,000	$62	43
100 J B Mcduff Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,199 (-0%)	22mo	$169,000	$141	43
109 Amanda Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (-14%)	4mo	$99,000	$96	32
809 S Cedar St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,158 (-4%)	23mo	$85,000	$73	31
102 Mcduff Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (-12%)	20mo	$120,000	$113	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $7,867
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $32,656
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75835

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $658

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $335	+0% $314	+5% $293	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $272	+0% $314	+5% $355	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $333	base $314	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 N Gordon Dr Unit A Crockett, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$900	$0.92	44d	1	1.08mi
705 E Runnells Ave Crockett, TX	1.0	1.0	841	$1,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.21mi
2109 E Goliad Ave Crockett, TX	2.0	1.0	1348	$1,300	$0.96	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    listed $74,900 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of potential for a first-time homebuyer, investor, or someone looking to downsize. The carport has been converted into a versatile space that could serve as a den, game room, or additional living area. Situated on a spacious lot with large, mature trees, the property is conveniently located near a local park and baseball field, offering a pleasant neighborhood setting. While the home does need some repairs, it presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $2,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$657
• After-tax cash flow: $3,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crockett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815720
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $26,917
• Composite: 19.83/100
• National rank: #8699
• State rank: #736 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crockett

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #17855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crockett, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,805

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.03%
• Current HPI: 149.4937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $74,900 GTAR

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.