501 Hickory St · Novinger, MO 63554

$39,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1910 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home in Novinger situated on two lots with a detached garage. Property needs extensive renovation but offers great potential for investors or buyers looking for a project. Spacious layout and large yard provide a strong foundation to bring this home back to life. Call or text Adam Snyder [phone] for more information.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Extensive renovation
• Strong foundation

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATION
• STRONG FOUNDATION
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#646 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Adair County R-I (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #353 of 535 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Adair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.55%
• DSCR: 4.76
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $54,945
• Equity at exit: $17,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.22×
• Total profit: $125,355
• Equity at exit: $27,649

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63554

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $321

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $39,900 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-04-21
    listed $39,900 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Home in Novinger situated on two lots with a detached garage. Property needs extensive renovation but offers great potential for investors or buyers looking for a project. Spacious layout and large yard provide a strong foundation to bring this home back to life. Call or text Adam Snyder [phone] for more information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,244
• After-tax cash flow: $7,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adair County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922980
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,771
• Composite: 34.17/100
• National rank: #10264
• State rank: #353 of 535 in MO

Livability — Novinger

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #21787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novinger, MO

Population outlook (Adair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,570 people
• By 2030: 25,728 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 25,556 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 25,811 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 29,164 · +14.1%
• By 2100: 31,846 · +24.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $39,900 NECAR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.