4711 Carbrook Ct · Houston, TX 77388

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1976 0.25 ac lot Est $261k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-580/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benfer El (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 795 students, 66% FRL); Strack Int (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,196 students, 49% FRL); Klein Collins H S (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,422 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,586 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4726 Marywood Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-9%)	2mo	$252,000	$137	75
4011 Cypressdale Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,909 (-6%)	3mo	$245,500	$129	73
4715 Cypressdale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,745 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$129	68
4043 Coltwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-7%)	3mo	$239,900	$128	67
3910 Lost Oak Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-7%)	2mo	$245,000	$131	66
3919 Cypressdale Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,152 (+6%)	2mo	$199,900	$93	64
18010 Cypress Spring Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	3mo	$265,000	$124	61
3718 Cypressdale Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (-5%)	0mo	$279,000	$145	60
18318 Navajo Trail Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,854 (-8%)	2mo	$229,000	$124	60
18018 Cypress Spring Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,172 (+7%)	2mo	$255,000	$117	58
17802 Sorrel Ridge Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,166 (+7%)	1mo	$285,000	$132	50
4602 Countrypines Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,307 (+14%)	2mo	$299,000	$130	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-47,439
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-69,519
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$407 /mo · $4,883/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $226,459

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $18	+0% $-48	+5% $-115	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-135	+0% $-48	+5% $38	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $11	base $-48	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18620 Louetta Creek Dr Spring, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1930	$1,995	$1.03	14d	3	0.21mi
4822 Lost Oak Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$2,200	$1.29	45d	1	0.29mi
3906 Postwood Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2211	$2,045	$0.92	9d	1	0.34mi
18011 Tall Cypress Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2824	$3,120	$1.10	9d	1	0.44mi
3626 Blue Cypress Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1813	$1,390	$0.77	26d	1	1.17mi
17734 Moss Point Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2734	$2,470	$0.90	17d	1	1.26mi
5215 Rivertree Ln Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1662	$2,300	$1.38	45d	1	1.26mi
4703 Fleming Downe Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	26d	1	1.48mi
16415 Lapis River Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,500	$0.89	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Pending 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Pending 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $235,000 Pending 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $235,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-28
   historical $235,000
10. 2007-03-22
    soldstatus
11. 2006-02-23
    soldstatus
12. 2001-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,883 · $407/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,883 · $407/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,883
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $235,000 HARMLS
• 2007-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,883 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.