949 Lake St · Lake Hamilton, FL 33851

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 1946 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1. No HOA. 2. New Roof-Summer-2025. 3. Curtis Campbell is my Brother. 4. This Mid-Century home is the very definition of: Fixer-Upper. 5. This Bungalow was built in the 1940's and is ready to be Up-Dated and Modernized. 6. If you love the challenge of Home Improvement and have a Stylish Eye, this may be the Opportunity that you are looking for. 7. The Seller may consider Financing. 8. Call me to Schedule a Viewing.

Key facts

• No hoa
• Fixer-upper
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• NO HOA
• FIXER-UPPER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,128 (public records); total building area reported as 1,510; Lot size about 0.35 acres (0.25–0.5 range); Vegetation includes fruit trees and oak trees
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: Not in a development; No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: No parking features listed
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available; Water source: canal/lake for irrigation; Sewer: other
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; On waterfront with lake view and access (Lake Sara), approximately 36 feet of lake frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built as a residence (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Other exterior features; City limits lot; Irregular lot; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $189k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,158
• Equity at exit: $68,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $65,755
• Equity at exit: $95,135

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33851

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2912 poppy ave, Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,925	$1.37	23d	1	0.58mi
1007 N Tangerine St Haines City, FL	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	23d	1	1.23mi
401 Pearl St Lake Hamilton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	3d	1	1.33mi
2240 Crown Rock Bluff Dr Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,999	$1.35	14d	1	1.38mi
2405 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #11293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Hamilton, FL
• City population: 1,109
• Population (ZIP): 1,109

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 29% Asian 20% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 388.4644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+152.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-10 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-20 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-13 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid