11201 N EL Mirage Rd Unit F16 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2007 8,327 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover cheerful and distinctive living in this one-story home! A paver driveway, manicured landscape, and two-car garage create a smart and classic early impression. A comfy front porch leads to a grand, spacious family room with vaulted ceilings, wood-style floors, custom paint, and abundant natural light. Enjoy classy hosting with an open kitchen featuring granite counters, a center island, skylight, and plenty of cabinets. This roomy home holds up to ten guests comfortably. The main bedroom offers backyard access, a walk-in closet, and a private ensuite with dual sinks. Add hours of play for guests in the huge screened-in rec room. Located in Pueblo El Mirage, a 55+ gated community kno

Key facts

• 8,327 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,468
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,040
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $333	+0% $267	+5% $201	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $188	+0% $267	+5% $346	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $315	base $267	+0.5pp $218	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11825 W Altadena Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,710	$1.57	13d	1	0.47mi
11845 W Poinsettia Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,940	$1.06	44d	1	0.49mi
12225 N 122nd Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	1832	$1,845	$1.01	44d	1	0.54mi
11821 W Laurel Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,845	$1.01	18d	1	0.57mi
11714 W Poinsettia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,695	$1.37	44d	1	0.60mi
11706 W Poinsettia Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,935	$1.06	6d	1	0.61mi
11801 W Paradise Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,700	$1.37	25d	1	0.62mi
12621 W Cherry Hills Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,725	$1.39	25d	1	0.64mi
11922 N Olive St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	4d	1	0.70mi
11530 W Poinsettia Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	1832	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	0.72mi
11934 N Olive St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,669	$1.35	6d	1	0.72mi
12511 N 121st Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,995	$1.09	4d	1	0.73mi
12701 W Cherry Hills Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,675	$1.54	25d	1	0.73mi
12563 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,749	$1.29	25d	1	0.74mi
11928 W Columbine Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1355	$1,745	$1.29	11d	1	0.75mi
12137 W Flores Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,785	$1.44	13d	1	0.77mi
10770 N 127th Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1906	$4,300	$2.26	2d	1	0.77mi
11620 W Peoria Ave Youngtown, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,726	$1.74	6d	1	0.77mi
12649 W Shaw Butte Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,755	$1.42	5d	1	0.78mi
11518 W Paradise Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	0.79mi
12405 W Scotts Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1978	$1,800	$0.91	44d	1	0.80mi
12005 W Scotts Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,810	$1.66	3d	1	0.80mi
12510 W Scotts Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2002	$1,929	$0.96	3d	1	0.84mi
12220 W Rosewood Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,665	$1.53	25d	1	0.85mi
12478 N Pablo St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,675	$1.10	25d	1	0.86mi
12478 N Pablo St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,675	$1.10	11d	1	0.86mi
11623 W Fooks Dr Youngtown, AZ	4.0	2.5	2230	$1,946	$0.87	12d	1	0.88mi
12519 N Pablo St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,720	$1.40	44d	1	0.90mi
12609 W Larkspur Rd El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,135	$1.07	44d	1	0.91mi
10464 N 116th Ln Youngtown, AZ	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,099	$0.93	44d	1	0.92mi
12648 N Main St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,699	$1.31	2d	1	0.94mi
10595 N 115th Dr Youngtown, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,794	$1.26	18d	1	0.94mi
12012 W Rosewood Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.5	1385	$1,595	$1.15	6d	1	0.94mi
11517 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,885	$1.45	25d	1	0.95mi
11517 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,755	$1.35	15d	1	0.95mi
12804 N B St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,955	$1.11	44d	1	0.96mi
11631 W Duran Ave Youngtown, AZ	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,026	$0.90	44d	1	0.97mi
12742 W Charter Oak Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	3.0	2232	$2,280	$1.02	44d	1	0.97mi
12418 W Windrose Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	25d	1	1.02mi
12071 W Dahlia Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,595	$1.46	19d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   price $190,000
3. 2025-12-12
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $3,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $195,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $267 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.