127 Drake Rd · South Lansing, NY 14882

$199,799

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1930 2.28 ac lot Est $318k · 37% under ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Four bedroom, one bath home on a quiet road in the Lansing School District. Beautiful 2+ acre lot with some wooded area. Large garage with workshop area and plenty of storage space. Close to schools, Myers park and Cayuga Lake, only 7 minutes to Triphammer shopping area. Easy drive to downtown Ithaca, colleges, shopping, and all of the beautiful parks this area has to offer. Enjoy the tranquility of your own backyard.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Large garage
• Workshop area

Tags

• 2 ACRE LOT
• WOODED AREA
• LARGE GARAGE
• WORKSHOP AREA
• STORAGE SPACE
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Gravel parking; Garage door opener; Garage includes storage and workshop space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Built with crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Agricultural and rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Drapes and window treatments; Crawl space with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.2% in South Lansing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lansing Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #244 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Raymond C Buckley Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 405 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,823 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,966
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Drake Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,067 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$173	100
151 Woodsedge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-2%)	17mo	$310,000	$298	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,316
• Equity at exit: $29,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,161
• Equity at exit: $17,275

Cash invested: $55,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14882

• Home prices YoY: -11.0%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,022/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,067

Max offer price $199,799

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $321	+0% $265	+5% $208	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $170	+0% $265	+5% $360	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $316	base $265	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,950
• Closing costs: $5,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $199,799 Pending 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,799 Active Under Contract 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,799 Active Under Contract 241 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,799 Active Under Contract 240 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,799 Active Under Contract 239 DOM
6. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-02-20
   price $199,799
8. 2026-01-07
   price $229,000
9. 2025-11-07
   price $249,000
10. 2025-10-25
    price $269,000
11. 2025-10-03
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,022 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,022 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,192
• − Property taxes: −$6,022
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$5,812
• Taxable income: $189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lansing Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,215
• Composite: 50.9/100
• National rank: #1788
• State rank: #244 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lansing

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lansing, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,193

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.13%
• Current HPI: 380.8807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-28.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $199,799 IBRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $229,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $249,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $269,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $279,000 IBRMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,022 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.