461 SW 251st Dr · Newberry, FL 32669

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 2017 3,049 sqft lot $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Oak View Village community of Newberry. Built in 2017, this 1,334 sq. ft. home features an open and split floorplan with a spacious layout designed for comfort and functionality. Step inside through the large foyer and enjoy the bright and airy great room with vaulted ceilings and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. The large kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, ample countertop space, and modern finishes—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in rear porch overlooking the backyard or on the inviting covered front porch. Additional features include a laundry room, a 2-car garage, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, and tile in wet areas. Conveniently located near top-rated Newberry schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to Gainesville, UF, and Shands. This move-in ready home combines modern comfort, thoughtful design, and a fantastic location—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large foyer
• Large kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• OPEN AND SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• LARGE FOYER
• BRIGHT AND AIRY GREAT ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Oak View Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 964 students, 49% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,230 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,847
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,486
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,875/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $273,325

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $68	+0% $-9	+5% $-87	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-100	+0% $-9	+5% $81	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $60	base $-9	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25107 SW 9th Ln Newberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,095	$1.45	15d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1307 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Oak View Village community of Newberry. Built in 2017, this 1,334 sq. ft. home features an open and split floorplan with a spacious layout designed for comfort and functionality. Step inside through the large foyer and enjoy the bright and airy great room with vaulted ceilings and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. The large kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, ample countertop space, and modern finishes—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in rear porch overlooking the backyard or on the inviting covered front porch. Additional features include a laundry room, a 2-car garage, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, and tile in wet areas. Conveniently located near top-rated Newberry schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to Gainesville, UF, and Shands. This move-in ready home combines modern comfort, thoughtful design, and a fantastic location—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-21
   price $275,000 1307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1307 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Oak View Village community of Newberry. Built in 2017, this 1,334 sq. ft. home features an open and split floorplan with a spacious layout designed for comfort and functionality. Step inside through the large foyer and enjoy the bright and airy great room with vaulted ceilings and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. The large kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, ample countertop space, and modern finishes—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in rear porch overlooking the backyard or on the inviting covered front porch. Additional features include a laundry room, a 2-car garage, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, and tile in wet areas. Conveniently located near top-rated Newberry schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to Gainesville, UF, and Shands. This move-in ready home combines modern comfort, thoughtful design, and a fantastic location—schedule your showing today!

3. 2025-12-15
   price $282,000 1307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1307 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Oak View Village community of Newberry. Built in 2017, this 1,334 sq. ft. home features an open and split floorplan with a spacious layout designed for comfort and functionality. Step inside through the large foyer and enjoy the bright and airy great room with vaulted ceilings and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. The large kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, ample countertop space, and modern finishes—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in rear porch overlooking the backyard or on the inviting covered front porch. Additional features include a laundry room, a 2-car garage, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, and tile in wet areas. Conveniently located near top-rated Newberry schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to Gainesville, UF, and Shands. This move-in ready home combines modern comfort, thoughtful design, and a fantastic location—schedule your showing today!

4. 2025-10-22
   listed $292,900 Active 1307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1307 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Oak View Village community of Newberry. Built in 2017, this 1,334 sq. ft. home features an open and split floorplan with a spacious layout designed for comfort and functionality. Step inside through the large foyer and enjoy the bright and airy great room with vaulted ceilings and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. The large kitchen offers plenty of cabinet space, ample countertop space, and modern finishes—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary bedroom includes an en suite bathroom with a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in rear porch overlooking the backyard or on the inviting covered front porch. Additional features include a laundry room, a 2-car garage, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main areas, and tile in wet areas. Conveniently located near top-rated Newberry schools, shopping, dining, and just a short drive to Gainesville, UF, and Shands. This move-in ready home combines modern comfort, thoughtful design, and a fantastic location—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,875
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $1,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $282,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $292,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,875 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.