4315 Lake Ave · Campbell, FL 34746

$197,888

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 241 Days on market

Built 1970 6,926 sqft lot Est $283k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Property to be sold AS-Is only. Owner motivated.

Key facts

• 6,926 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 241 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.2% in Campbell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#848 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1278 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $198k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,141 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,360
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1700 Bryant St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	1mo	$279,900	$280	87
1700 Evergreen St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,048 (+4%)	2mo	$287,990	$275	80
1710 Bryant St	0.13mi	3/2.0	919 (-9%)	1mo	$299,900	$326	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,944
• Equity at exit: $29,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,871
• Equity at exit: $17,110

Cash invested: $55,409 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34746

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1278
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,462/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $197,888

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,472
• Closing costs: $5,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1814 Lindens St Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	23d	1	0.25mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	19d	1	0.38mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	3d	1	0.38mi
4327 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	2d	1	0.45mi
1918 Ancestry Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,200	$1.54	23d	1	0.70mi
3495 Forest Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,750	$1.68	4d	1	0.84mi
4301 Twisted Twig Bnd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	1.16mi
4207 Mountain Laurel Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,600	$2.06	23d	1	1.19mi
2860 Osprey Cove Pl #202 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,600	$1.55	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 88-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $197,888 Pending 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,888 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,888 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,888 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $197,888 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $197,888 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $197,888 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $197,888 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,888 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
12. 2026-03-31
    price $197,888
13. 2026-01-02
    status Active
14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-09-15
    status Active
16. 2025-08-12
    status Pending
17. 2025-08-12
    status Active
18. 2025-05-27
    status Pending
19. 2025-05-26
    listed $180,000 Active
20. 2008-08-04
    historical
21. 2007-08-16
    listed $89,900
22. 2001-08-02
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 1994-01-13
    soldstatus $28,000
24. 1976-04-29
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,462 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,462 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,462
• − Insurance: −$989
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$5,757
• Taxable income: $2,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$670
• After-tax cash flow: $5,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Campbell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #848
• US rank: #21421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Campbell, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 60,595
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,595
• Household income: $70,998
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1690.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 29% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 26% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Estonian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.87%
• Current HPI: 239.1841
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1422.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $197,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-26 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-16 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1976-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,462 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.