5513 121st St · Lubbock, TX 79424

$387,500

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,843 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 8,492 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful investment duplex. Both sides are 3 -2-2 with granites and plank flooring . Great curb appeal . Sprinkler systems and fenced . Call for details Cooper schools and location .

Key facts

• Fenced
• Curb appeal
• Investment duplex

Tags

• INVESTMENT DUPLEX
• GRANITES
• PLANK FLOORING
• CURB APPEAL
• SPRINKLER SYSTEMS
• FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $388k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-131/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,800 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-80,179
• Equity at exit: $57,778

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-94,059
• Equity at exit: $33,504

Cash invested: $108,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,032
• Tax from tax record: −$674 /mo · $8,094/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,630

Max offer price $341,106

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-153	+0% $-263	+5% $-372	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-523	-5% $-393	+0% $-263	+5% $-132	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-164	base $-263	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-465

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,298
Total (2 units)			$3,298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,875
• Closing costs: $11,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $387,500 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $387,500 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $387,500 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-02-10
   status Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Wonderful investment duplex. Both sides are 3 -2-2 with granites and plank flooring . Great curb appeal . Sprinkler systems and fenced . Call for details Cooper schools and location .

5. 2026-02-10
   price $390,000 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Wonderful investment duplex. Both sides are 3 -2-2 with granites and plank flooring . Great curb appeal . Sprinkler systems and fenced . Call for details Cooper schools and location .

6. 2026-02-06
   historical 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Wonderful investment duplex. Both sides are 3 -2-2 with granites and plank flooring . Great curb appeal . Sprinkler systems and fenced . Call for details Cooper schools and location .

7. 2025-12-18
   listed $395,000 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Wonderful investment duplex. Both sides are 3 -2-2 with granites and plank flooring . Great curb appeal . Sprinkler systems and fenced . Call for details Cooper schools and location .

8. 2025-05-22
   historical $1,475
9. 2025-05-15
   price $1,475
10. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus
11. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus
12. 2025-03-08
    listed $1,500
13. 2024-10-04
    historical $1,425
14. 2024-09-13
    price $1,425
15. 2024-08-30
    price $1,450
16. 2024-08-09
    price $1,475
17. 2024-06-04
    listed $1,500
18. 2024-03-14
    historical $1,450
19. 2023-12-01
    price $1,450
20. 2023-10-30
    price $1,475
21. 2023-10-21
    price $1,495
22. 2023-09-20
    listed $1,555
23. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus
24. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,094 · $674/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,094 · $674/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,706
• − Property taxes: −$8,094
• − Insurance: −$1,938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,166
• − Management: −$3,166
• − Depreciation: −$11,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready duplex is ready for new tenants or buyers. It features modern kitchens, bathrooms, and curb appeal, with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the property and improves curb appeal.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the property and improves curb appeal. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24980.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $390,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $395,000 LARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Rental Removed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-04 Rental Removed $1,425 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $1,425 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-04 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $1,475 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-21 Price Changed $1,495 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-20 Listed for Rent $1,555 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+79.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,094 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.