ARIA Plan · North Fort Myers, FL 33982

$339,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 221 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aria floorplan at Palmetto Landing is a 1,672 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a two-car garage. It boasts many contemporary features and an open-concept design to enhance the modern feel of this home. The kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The well-appointed kitchen comes with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and shaker-style cabinets. The dining room and living room both overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom, located at the back of the home for privacy, can comfortably fit a king-size be

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• En suite bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE
• COVERED LANAI
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 44696 Plumeria St, Punta Gorda, FL 33982
• Financial info: List price $339,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan named ARIA; Single-family home (plan)
• Construction: Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,672 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan ARIA)

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,712.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-543/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,809/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $280,948 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17842 Shade Tree Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+9%)	6mo	$345,000	$190	68
17757 Oleander Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-8%)	4mo	$259,000	$168	66
44597 Palm Frond Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,828 (+9%)	15mo	$366,000	$200	65
44616 Palm Frond Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	16mo	$365,000	$200	62
17734 Shade Tree Loop	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	6mo	$335,000	$183	61
17585 Wild Iris Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	7mo	$269,900	$180	54
44234 Creekside Run Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+3%)	14mo	$535,000	$311	53
17525 Wild Iris Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	7mo	$279,999	$186	51
17537 Wild Iris Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	12mo	$295,000	$196	48
44364 Frangipani Way	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	10mo	$289,900	$193	47
17674 Oleander Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	14mo	$315,000	$210	45
17650 Oleander Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	15mo	$309,900	$206	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,713
• Equity at exit: $48,863

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-35,878
• Equity at exit: $28,335

Cash invested: $91,759 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33982

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,916/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,867

Max offer price $321,164

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $68	+0% $-45	+5% $-158	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-156	+0% $-45	+5% $66	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $38	base $-45	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,928
• Closing costs: $9,831
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17710 Shade Tree Loop Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$3,000	$1.70	23d	1	0.31mi
17639 Wild Iris Ln Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1496	$2,350	$1.57	23d	1	0.34mi
17604 Fallen Branch Way Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.98mi
16922 Sage Ter Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$3,500	$2.22	23d	1	0.99mi
44458 Diamond Trl Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	1.02mi
43693 Tree Top Trl Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	1850	$11,000	$5.95	23d	1	1.06mi
44489 Panther Dr Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1985	$10,000	$5.04	15d	1	1.35mi
44229 Saddlewood Ct Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,395	$1.43	23d	1	1.40mi
44229 Saddlewood Ct Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,350	$1.40	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,990 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,990 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,990 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,990 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,990 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,990 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,990 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,990 Active 199 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,916
• − Insurance: −$1,639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − Depreciation: −$9,533
• Taxable loss: −$6,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,006
• Household income: $72,443
• Rent vs Own: 11.2% rent · 88.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.25%
• Current HPI: 448.5895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.13%
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B