4621 East St Unit 10B · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$70,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition 701 sqft lot $96/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living just minutes from Birch Bay! This 1-bedroom, ¾-bath manufactured home offers 728 square feet of efficient, easy-to-maintain space—perfect for a first-time buyer or downsizer. Built in 1977 and located in a quiet community, the home provides a great opportunity to enjoy coastal living at an approachable price point. Enjoy the comfort of mini-split heating & cooling throughout the year. With Blaine, I-5 access, and local amenities all within about 5 minutes, convenience is at your doorstep. Monthly space rent is approximately $610. This unit offers 365 days/year round living. A practical option for those seeking simplicity, location, and value.

Key facts

• I-5 access
• Local amenities
• Mini-split heating

Tags

• QUIET COMMUNITY
• MINI-SPLIT HEATING
• I-5 ACCESS
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.20%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,117
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -53.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4596 California Trl	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+8%)	0mo	$338,000	$431	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $94,703
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.99×
• Total profit: $234,957
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $934	-5% $909	+0% $885	+5% $861	+10% $837
Rent	-10% $748	-5% $817	+0% $885	+5% $954	+10% $1,022
Rate	-1.0pp $920	-0.5pp $903	base $885	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $849

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    status Active
17. 2026-05-09
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-20
    price $74,000
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,426
• After-tax cash flow: $8,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1977 manufactured home offers a good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and fresh paint, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops enhance functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops enhance functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $74,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid