34956 Seavey Loop Rd #11 · Springfield, OR 97405

$34,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1973 $47/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Vinyl windows
• Patio area

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• COVERED PORCH
• PATIO AREA
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 47.4% vs local median 3.0% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#40 in OR, #934 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D+.
• Springfield SD 19 (suburban): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #48 of 58 in OR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.76%
• DSCR: 7.53
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,500
• List price: $34,000
• Delta: -54.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34956 Seavey Loop Rd #11	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	0mo	$31,500	$44	100
34956 Seavey Loop Rd #38	0.00mi	2/1.0	734 (+2%)	12mo	$34,000	$46	87
34182 Del Monte Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	618 (-14%)	18mo	$82,000	$133	39
34114 Del Monte Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (+11%)	15mo	$190,000	$238	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $44,611
• Equity at exit: $5,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.83×
• Total profit: $112,594
• Equity at exit: $2,940

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97405

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $121/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $34,000 Pending 283 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $34,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   price $34,000 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

5. 2026-04-22
   price $36,500 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

6. 2026-03-13
   price $37,000 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

7. 2026-02-18
   price $39,000 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

8. 2026-01-07
   price $39,250 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

9. 2025-12-19
   price $39,500 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

10. 2025-11-12
    price $39,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

11. 2025-10-21
    price $40,500 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

12. 2025-09-19
    price $41,500 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

13. 2025-09-08
    price $44,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

14. 2025-08-29
    price $46,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

15. 2025-08-22
    listed $46,500 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Nicely updated 2 bedroom home in an ALL AGES park. Space rent is affordable! This home has fresh paint inside and out, with new kitchen flooring. Vinyl windows. Covered porch, plus patio area for outdoor seating, and fully fenced yard. Spacious shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $121 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $330 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 172.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$121
• − Insurance: −$5,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $9,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $6,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,236
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7746
• State rank: #48 of 58 in OR

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #934

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lane County · 310,476 people
• City population: 76,907
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $95,170
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1853.0

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -506.95%
• Current HPI: 307.1838
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $34,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $36,500 RMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $37,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $39,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $39,250 RMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $39,500 RMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $39,900 RMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $40,500 RMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $41,500 RMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $44,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $46,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $46,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · +1918.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.