115 Percival Path · King Arthur Park, MT 59718

$90,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $947/mo HOA · 51% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Wood-burning stove
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• STAINLESS STEEL RANGE
• NATURAL GAS FURNACE
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax amount: $259
• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee: $947; Association amenities include a playground and a park; Association fee includes trash

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Other foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $74k (17.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in King Arthur Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in MT, #2,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $74,473 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-26,230
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-50,118
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59718

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$947
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $74,473

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-76	+0% $-107	+5% $-138	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-180	+0% $-107	+5% $-34	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-84	base $-107	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5242 Fallon St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,862	$1.87	22d	6	0.76mi
4650 W Garfield St Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,768	$1.92	22d	18	0.92mi
228 S Cottonwood Rd Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–1.5	1050	$2,125	$2.02	22d	2	1.13mi
106 S Cottonwood Rd Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,872	$2.06	22d	11	1.19mi
4555 Fallon St Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,848	$1.87	22d	25	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $947 · $11,364/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $90,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $95,000
19. 2026-04-20
    listed $100,000 Active
20. 2024-12-28
    price $115,000
21. 2024-08-26
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − HOA: −$11,364
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$2,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $-766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting interior walls, replacing worn kitchen cabinets, and replacing weathered exterior siding.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Interior walls/paint — Faded in some areas
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Replace weathered exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Trimmed landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls/paint · Faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$7,500–39,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace weathered exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Trimmed landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bozeman Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3004560
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,664
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1635
• State rank: #7 of 116 in MT

Livability — King Arthur Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: King Arthur Park, MT
• County: Gallatin County · 108,510 people
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• Population (ZIP): 44,585
• Household income: $99,123
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1786.0

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.82%
• Current HPI: 272.8072
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-26.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $95,000 MRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $100,000 MRMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $115,000 MRMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $129,000 MRMLS