15720 Plum Brook Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$228,940

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $121/sqft · 18% below area Est $278k · 18% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Littleton" Plan with Siding Elevation "C" in Sweetwater Ridge! On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($603/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,632 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,490
• List price: $228,940
• Delta: -17.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15713 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (0%)	1mo	$287,990	$152	98
15704 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,891 (0%)	2mo	$287,990	$152	97
15693 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (0%)	3mo	$287,990	$152	96
15678 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,891 (0%)	5mo	$291,990	$154	96
16423 Blossom Grove Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,793 (-5%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	88
15712 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-10%)	1mo	$277,990	$163	81
15705 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-10%)	2mo	$279,990	$164	79
15697 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-10%)	2mo	$277,990	$163	79
15689 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-10%)	4mo	$283,990	$166	77
15679 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-10%)	5mo	$278,990	$163	77
15690 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	3mo	$277,990	$167	76
15701 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$275,990	$166	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,923
• Equity at exit: $34,136

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-53,919
• Equity at exit: $19,795

Cash invested: $64,103 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,434/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $228,940

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $129	+0% $50	+5% $-29	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-31	+0% $50	+5% $132	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $108	base $50	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,235
• Closing costs: $6,868
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15648 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.02mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.02mi
15652 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,135	$0.97	0d	1	0.02mi
15667 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.02mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.02mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$2,240	$1.37	0d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $228,940 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $228,940 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $228,940 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $228,940 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $228,940 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   price $245,790 430-char remark
7. 2026-05-11
   price $245,790 558-char remark
8. 2026-05-08
   listed $242,240 Active 430-char remark
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $242,240 Active 558-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,824
• − Property taxes: −$3,434
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,660
• Taxable loss: −$3,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $228,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $245,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $242,240 HARMLS