199 Maben Hill Ln Lot 14 · Barboursville, VA 22923

$379,089

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,178 sqft lot 2-car garage $215/sqft · 7% below area Est $409k · 7% under $94/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Nichols at Essence at Creekside! Estimated for completion October 2026, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines style, space, and smart design for modern living. Featuring an oversized backyard with a rear patio, this home is perfect for outdoor entertaining, relaxing evenings, or simply enjoying the mountain views. | Inside, the open-concept main level offers a bright family room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, making gatherings easy and enjoyable. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes a spa-like bath, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing household.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Rear patio
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• REAR PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE EXTERIORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $379k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,508 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,357
• List price: $379,089
• Delta: -7.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Trailfork Rd	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	2mo	$397,089	$226	96
225 Trailfork Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,760 (0%)	5mo	$407,490	$232	87
147 Maben Hill Ln Lot 10	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	3mo	$409,990	$238	86
271 Trailfork Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-2%)	1mo	$399,789	$232	76
220 Trailfork Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	1mo	$406,990	$262	63
85 Magnolia Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,864 (+6%)	5mo	$400,000	$215	61
247 Trailfork Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	2mo	$366,990	$236	60
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	5mo	$373,389	$240	60
310 Trailfork Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-12%)	2mo	$494,990	$319	60
272 Arches Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	1mo	$402,970	$212	52
267 Arches Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	1mo	$416,310	$219	51
268 Arches Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,903 (+8%)	3mo	$434,990	$229	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,059
• Equity at exit: $56,523

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-130,123
• Equity at exit: $32,777

Cash invested: $106,145 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 60 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $397,990 ($255/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,686/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,435

Max offer price $297,913

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-299	-5% $-430	+0% $-561	+5% $-692	+10% $-823
Rent	-10% $-776	-5% $-669	+0% $-561	+5% $-453	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-465	base $-561	+0.5pp $-659	+1.0pp $-759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,772
• Closing costs: $11,373
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Sophie Kathryn DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	3.5	1470	$2,200	$1.50	36d	1	0.06mi
50 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,095	$1.43	92d	1	0.08mi
59 Grayson Village DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	92d	1	0.09mi
60 Sophie Kathryn DR Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,100	$1.43	0d	1	0.11mi
246 Arches Ln Eheart, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$3,100	$1.63	78d	1	0.60mi
246 Arches Ln Eheart, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,875	$1.51	49d	1	0.60mi
90 Mannie Ct Ruckersville, VA	4.0	2.5	1440	$2,850	$1.98	7d	1	0.67mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	153d	1	0.71mi
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	153d	1	0.72mi
87 Oland St Ruckersville, VA	3.0	2.5	2480	$2,350	$0.95	0d	1	0.83mi
80 Glacier AVE Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.84mi
80 Glacier AVE Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,750	$1.38	12d	1	0.84mi
31 Oland St Ruckersville, VA	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	12d	1	0.88mi
31 Oland St Ruckersville, VA	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	0d	1	0.88mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	154d	1	1.13mi
144 Lake Saponi Dr #7 Barboursville, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,000	$1.59	114d	1	1.45mi
35 Holly Hill Dr Barboursville, VA	4.0	3.5	2000	$2,700	$1.35	10d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $94Association amenities: clubhouse, playground, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available
• Home design: Detached homeTwo-storyNew construction
• Construction: Stick-built constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Community poolCommunity amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool, and tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heating
• Interior features: MicrowaveRefrigerator

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-25
   days on market $379,089 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-08-24
   days on market $379,089 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-08-23
   days on market $379,089 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-08-22
   days on market $379,089 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-08-21
   days on market $379,089 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-08-20
   days on market $379,089 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-08-19
   days on market $379,089 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-08-18
   days on market $379,089 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-08-17
   days on market $379,089 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-08-16
    days on market $379,089 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $379,089 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-08-15
    days on market $379,089 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-08-13
    days on market $379,089 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-08-12
    days on market $379,089 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-08-11
    days on market $379,089 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-08-10
    days on market $379,089 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-08-09
    days on market $379,089 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-08-08
    days on market $379,089 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-08-07
    pricedays on market $379,089 Active 73 DOM
20. 2026-08-06
    days on market $388,089 Active 72 DOM
21. 2026-08-05
    days on market $388,089 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-08-04
    days on market $388,089 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-08-03
    days on market $388,089 Active 69 DOM
24. 2026-07-31
    days on market $388,089 Active 66 DOM
25. 2026-07-30
    days on market $388,089 Active 65 DOM
26. 2026-07-29
    days on market $388,089 Active 64 DOM
27. 2026-07-27
    days on market $388,089 Active 62 DOM
28. 2026-07-25
    days on market $388,089 Active 60 DOM
29. 2026-07-24
    days on market $388,089 Active 59 DOM
30. 2026-07-23
    days on market $388,089 Active 58 DOM
31. 2026-07-22
    days on market $388,089 Active 57 DOM
32. 2026-07-21
    days on market $388,089 Active 56 DOM
33. 2026-07-18
    days on market $388,089 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $388,089 Active 51 DOM
35. 2026-07-16
    days on market $398,089 Active 50 DOM
36. 2026-07-14
    days on market $398,089 Active 49 DOM
37. 2026-07-13
    days on market $398,089 Active 48 DOM
38. 2026-07-12
    days on market $398,089 Active 47 DOM
39. 2026-07-11
    days on market $398,089 Active 46 DOM
40. 2026-07-10
    days on market $398,089 Active 45 DOM
41. 2026-07-09
    days on market $398,089 Active 44 DOM
42. 2026-07-08
    days on market $398,089 Active 43 DOM
43. 2026-07-07
    days on market $398,089 Active 42 DOM
44. 2026-07-06
    days on market $398,089 Active 41 DOM
45. 2026-07-05
    days on market $398,089 Active 40 DOM
46. 2026-07-04
    days on market $398,089 Active 39 DOM
47. 2026-07-03
    days on market $398,089 Active 38 DOM
48. 2026-07-02
    days on market $398,089 Active 37 DOM
49. 2026-07-01
    days on market $398,089 Active 36 DOM
50. 2026-06-30
    days on market $398,089 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,235
• − Property taxes: −$5,686
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$11,028
• Taxable loss: −$13,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,241
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can make the home look newer and more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nathanael Greene Primary Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $94Association amenities: clubhouse, playground, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available
• Home design: Detached homeTwo-storyNew construction
• Construction: Stick-built constructionSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Community poolCommunity amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool, and tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningElectric heating
• Interior features: MicrowaveRefrigerator

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $398,089 CAAR