998 Cumberland Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2007 8,002 sqft lot $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Bonus room
• Functional layout

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.29%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,171
• Equity at exit: $38,259

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,382
• Equity at exit: $36,871

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	0.09mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	0.12mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	0.40mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.51mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.52mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	23d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-03-26
   historical Active Under Contract 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

3. 2026-03-18
   price $175,000 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

4. 2026-03-18
   price $175,000

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

5. 2026-03-05
   status Active
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $199,999 Active 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   BANKRUPTCY SHORT SALE! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home with A 2 Car Garage And Office Or Extra Room. Home Features An Open Floor, Kitchen Opens To The Main Living Area. The Extra Room Can Easily Be Used As A Home Office, Playroom, Or Guest Space. The Home Has Excellent Potential For Both Homeowners And Investors Alike. This Is A Bankruptcy Short Sale Call for a Showing TODAY!

7. 2025-11-21
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-04
   listed $199,999 Active
9. 2025-10-27
   historical
10. 2025-09-16
    price $250,000
11. 2025-08-29
    price $275,000
12. 2025-08-10
    price $300,000
13. 2025-07-23
    price $330,000
14. 2025-07-23
    listed $260,000 Active
15. 2024-01-12
    price $312,000
16. 2023-12-07
    listed $289,888 Active
17. 2023-05-09
    soldstatus $250,000
18. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
19. 2023-03-06
    status Pending
20. 2023-02-27
    listed $245,900 Active
21. 2017-10-09
    soldstatus $132,000
22. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus $132,000 Sold
23. 2017-08-02
    status Pending
24. 2017-07-27
    listed $134,900 Active
25. 2013-04-04
    historical
26. 2012-10-27
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+133.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Contingent — HCAR
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $175,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $199,999 HCAR
• 2025-11-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Price Changed $312,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-07 Listed $289,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (MLS) $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-27 Listed $245,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-02 Sold (MLS) $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-27 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-27 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,171 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.