6809 River Rd · Matoaca, VA 23803

$229,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1957 0.46 ac lot Est $295k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This all brick 1330 square foot home with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath rests on almost half and acre in Chesterfield. Enjoy a cup of coffee on the side porch or quite evenings relaxing. This home is close to Lake Chesdin, library, schools and much more! This convenient location can get you to Colonial Heights or Chesterfield business in just a few minutes! This home has been lovingly cared by family for many decades.

Key facts

• Brick home
• Side porch
• Convenient location

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SIDE PORCH
• CLOSE TO LAKE CHESDIN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoaca Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 619 students, 81% FRL); Matoaca Middle (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 865 students, 45% FRL); Matoaca High (math 49% / reading 82%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,630 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,664 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,260
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6809 River Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,330 (0%)	1mo	$226,000	$170	99
21311 West St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-1%)	7mo	$315,000	$239	80
21300 West St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	12mo	$255,000	$210	62
21600 Ferndale Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-2%)	16mo	$290,000	$222	61
21506 Stuart Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,452 (+9%)	8mo	$179,000	$123	58
6600 Johnston St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-2%)	21mo	$329,000	$252	56
3717 Elsie Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-1%)	12mo	$323,000	$245	50
21100 Matoaca Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-7%)	23mo	$262,500	$213	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,900
• Equity at exit: $83,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $60,964
• Equity at exit: $115,834

Cash invested: $64,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,044/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $201,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-98	+0% $-163	+5% $-228	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-229	+0% $-163	+5% $-98	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-105	base $-163	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,488
• Closing costs: $6,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $229,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,881
• − Property taxes: −$2,044
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$6,689
• Taxable loss: −$6,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matoaca, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $229,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,044 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.