104 Dogwood Trl · Leesburg, FL 34748

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Condo public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 $397/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 104 Dogwood Trail on a Cul-de Sac! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers fantastic curb appeal, highlighted by a long-upgraded paver driveway with ample parking space. Major updates have already been completed for your peace of mind, including a new roof (2022), a recently updated HVAC system (2025), and newer windows throughout. Step inside to find laminate flooring and beautiful quartz countertops with a coordinating backsplash that add both style and functionality to the home. The fully equipped kitchen features abundant cabinetry, providing plenty of storage and workspace for all your cooking needs. The guest bathroom includes a long vanity counter, a tub with sliding m

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Landscaped grounds

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• ILLUMINATED FOUNTAINS
• RELAXING GAZEBO
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual association fees $4,764; Property is furnished
• HOA & community: Member of Hawthorne Residents Cooperative Association; Monthly association fee of $397; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, laundry, pickleball courts, pool, sauna, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub, storage, tennis courts, vehicle restrictions, wheelchair access; Association fee covers 24-hour guard, cable TV, pool, grounds maintenance, private road, sewer, trash, and water; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, special community restrictions; senior community; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: 24-hour guard (included in association fees)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Fire hydrant on property; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double wide; One story; East-facing entry; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Membrane roof
• Exterior features: Awnings; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-27,015
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-41,882
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $893/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$397
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $124,888

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $397 · $4,764/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-02-24
    status Active
15. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$893
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − HOA: −$4,764
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $893 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.