415 E Dean St., Unit 16, Week 9 · Aspen, CO 81611

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Condo · 153 Days on market

Built 2005 Excellent condition $120/sqft · 56% above area $717/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. This 2nd-floor 2-bedroom luxury residence features views overlooking downtown Aspen to Red Mountain. Winter Ski Week #9. 2026 dates: Fixed Week: Sun, March 1 - Sun, March 8. 1/20th interest - includes fixed week and float week every year and additional float week every other year.

Key facts

• Concierge
• Ski shop
• Heated outdoor pool

Tags

• HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• CONCIERGE
• VALET
• GYM
• FIRE PIT
• SKI SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,978/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.46%
• DSCR: 6.14
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,531
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 56.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.00×
• Total profit: $415,711
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.96×
• Total profit: $1,107,118
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$717
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,675
• Net cashflow: $4,445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,351

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,559	-5% $4,502	+0% $4,445	+5% $4,388	+10% $4,331
Rent	-10% $3,815	-5% $4,130	+0% $4,445	+5% $4,760	+10% $5,076
Rate	-1.0pp $4,528	-0.5pp $4,487	base $4,445	+0.5pp $4,403	+1.0pp $4,359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $717 · $8,604/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2025-12-23
   listed $165,000 Active 791-char remark

   Show marketing remark (791 chars)

   2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. This 2nd-floor 2-bedroom luxury residence features views overlooking downtown Aspen to Red Mountain. Winter Ski Week #9. 2026 dates: Fixed Week: Sun, March 1 - Sun, March 8. 1/20th interest - includes fixed week and float week every year and additional float week every other year.

2. 2025-10-07
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 853-char remark

   Show marketing remark (853 chars)

   2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. This 2nd-floor 2-bedroom luxury residence features views overlooking downtown Aspen to Red Mountain. Prime Summer Week #31. 2026 dates: Fixed Week: Sun, August 2 - Sun, August 9. Float Weeks: May 17-May 24 and November 1 - November 8. 1/20th interest - includes fixed week and float week every year and additional float week every other year.

3. 2025-10-02
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed
4. 2025-09-19
   soldstatus $448,000 Closed
5. 2025-09-17
   status Pending 853-char remark

   Show marketing remark (853 chars)

   2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. This 2nd-floor 2-bedroom luxury residence features views overlooking downtown Aspen to Red Mountain. Prime Summer Week #31. 2026 dates: Fixed Week: Sun, August 2 - Sun, August 9. Float Weeks: May 17-May 24 and November 1 - November 8. 1/20th interest - includes fixed week and float week every year and additional float week every other year.

6. 2025-09-02
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-25
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-25
   listed $87,000 Active
9. 2025-08-04
   status Active
10. 2025-07-30
    status Pending
11. 2025-06-25
    listed $469,000 Active
12. 2025-04-22
    listed $135,000 Active 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    2024 renovations completed (including new decor, furniture, lighting, paint and carpets). The Aspen Mountain Residences is nestled at the base of the mountain between the St. Regis and Little Nell properties. Bars, restaurants, shopping and nightlife are literally a few steps from The Aspen. The multitude of amenities and services include daily maid service, concierge, valet, heated outdoor pool along with 2 hot tubs, gym, fire pit, ski shop, e-bikes for owners use and daily breakfast service. This 2nd-floor 2-bedroom luxury residence features views overlooking downtown Aspen to Red Mountain. Prime Summer Week #31. 2026 dates: Fixed Week: Sun, August 2 - Sun, August 9. Float Weeks: May 17-May 24 and November 1 - November 8. 1/20th interest - includes fixed week and float week every year and additional float week every other year.

13. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed
14. 2022-07-22
    status Pending
15. 2022-07-11
    listed $300,000 Active
16. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus $107,500 Closed
17. 2022-06-15
    status Pending
18. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
19. 2022-03-15
    status Pending
20. 2022-03-04
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2022-01-24
    listed $115,000 Active
22. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus $61,000
23. 2016-02-24
    soldstatus $90,000
24. 2015-05-20
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2014-08-27
    soldstatus $50,000
26. 2013-05-23
    soldstatus $95,000
27. 2011-12-23
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $95,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,659
• − Management: −$7,659
• − HOA: −$8,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $54,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,073
• After-tax cash flow: $40,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This luxury condo is in excellent condition with recent renovations, offering a move-in-ready experience with stunning mountain views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale minor updates to kitchen backsplash — modernizes the space and adds value
• Resale painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale minor updates to kitchen backsplash — modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Resale painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+94.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $165,000 AGMLS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (MLS) $115,000 AGMLS
• 2025-10-02 Sold (MLS) $80,000 AGMLS
• 2025-09-19 Sold (MLS) $448,000 AGMLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — AGMLS
• 2025-09-02 Pending — AGMLS
• 2025-08-25 Pending — AGMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $87,000 AGMLS
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — AGMLS
• 2025-07-30 Pending — AGMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $469,000 AGMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $135,000 AGMLS
• 2022-08-22 Sold (MLS) $280,000 AGMLS
• 2022-07-22 Pending — AGMLS
• 2022-07-11 Listed $300,000 AGMLS
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) $107,500 AGMLS
• 2022-06-15 Pending — AGMLS
• 2022-03-28 Sold (MLS) $115,000 AGMLS
• 2022-03-15 Pending — AGMLS
• 2022-03-04 Listed $125,000 AGMLS
• 2022-01-24 Listed $115,000 AGMLS
• 2018-10-15 Sold (MLS) $61,000 AGMLS
• 2016-02-24 Sold (MLS) $90,000 AGMLS
• 2015-05-20 Sold (MLS) $100,000 AGMLS
• 2014-08-27 Sold (MLS) $50,000 AGMLS
• 2013-05-23 Sold (MLS) $95,000 AGMLS
• 2011-12-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 AGMLS