14783 Aurora Ln · Lyman, MS 39503

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 7,405 sqft lot $141/sqft · 16% below area Est $256k · 16% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great house! Spacious open floor plan with easy care luxury vinyl flooring, generously sized bedrooms. Master bath features a relaxing 5-foot soaking tub. You feel like you are living in the country but are within minutes of all major shopping, churches, medical and major highways and airport and Interstate 10. Currently rented; 48 hour advance notice for appointment to show please.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($345/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $191,721 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,127
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -16.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14791 Davidson Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,525 (0%)	2mo	$242,775	$159	96
14795 Davidson Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,525 (0%)	3mo	$225,875	$148	96
14792 Davidson Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,525 (0%)	5mo	$237,875	$156	95
14781 Davidson Ct	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+7%)	1mo	$261,525	$160	80
14605 Marmon Cv	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+7%)	3mo	$263,425	$161	78
14311 Tori Dawn Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+5%)	2mo	$224,900	$141	76
18354 Cardinal Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-1%)	1mo	$215,000	$143	74
18272 Cardinal Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+9%)	1mo	$199,000	$120	66
14286 Tori Dawn Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,309 (-14%)	4mo	$215,000	$164	65
14703 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+8%)	0mo	$269,995	$164	61
18320 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,332 (-13%)	4mo	$177,500	$133	59
15164 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+10%)	4mo	$239,000	$142	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,972
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $16,401
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18278 Tara Brooke Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	44d	1	0.30mi
14860 Audubon Lake Blvd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,850	$1.14	44d	1	0.31mi
18231 Mill Cv Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	13d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $215,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $225,000 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great house! Spacious open floor plan with easy care luxury vinyl flooring, generously sized bedrooms. Master bath features a relaxing 5-foot soaking tub. You feel like you are living in the country but are within minutes of all major shopping, churches, medical and major highways and airport and Interstate 10. Currently rented; 48 hour advance notice for appointment to show please.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $235,000 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great house! Spacious open floor plan with easy care luxury vinyl flooring, generously sized bedrooms. Master bath features a relaxing 5-foot soaking tub. You feel like you are living in the country but are within minutes of all major shopping, churches, medical and major highways and airport and Interstate 10. Currently rented; 48 hour advance notice for appointment to show please.

18. 2026-03-14
    listed $245,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great house! Spacious open floor plan with easy care luxury vinyl flooring, generously sized bedrooms. Master bath features a relaxing 5-foot soaking tub. You feel like you are living in the country but are within minutes of all major shopping, churches, medical and major highways and airport and Interstate 10. Currently rented; 48 hour advance notice for appointment to show please.

19. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus Closed 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Closing costs paid, plus interest rate buydown, or free upgrades for buyer! Welcome to your future sanctuary at Cardinal Pointe, where modern comfort blends effortlessly with the serenity of country life. These 1,525 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, designed for both everyday living and peaceful retreat. With 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 elegant bathrooms, the primary bath stands out with its luxurious 5-foot soaking tub—perfect for unwinding. Imagine coming home along a scenic route that eases you into relaxation, and stepping into a spacious open layout featuring sleek luxury vinyl flooring that's perfect for both cozy evenings and effortless entertaining.

20. 2024-12-18
    status Pending 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Closing costs paid, plus interest rate buydown, or free upgrades for buyer! Welcome to your future sanctuary at Cardinal Pointe, where modern comfort blends effortlessly with the serenity of country life. These 1,525 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, designed for both everyday living and peaceful retreat. With 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 elegant bathrooms, the primary bath stands out with its luxurious 5-foot soaking tub—perfect for unwinding. Imagine coming home along a scenic route that eases you into relaxation, and stepping into a spacious open layout featuring sleek luxury vinyl flooring that's perfect for both cozy evenings and effortless entertaining.

21. 2024-11-13
    listed $236,275 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Closing costs paid, plus interest rate buydown, or free upgrades for buyer! Welcome to your future sanctuary at Cardinal Pointe, where modern comfort blends effortlessly with the serenity of country life. These 1,525 square feet of thoughtfully crafted space, designed for both everyday living and peaceful retreat. With 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2 elegant bathrooms, the primary bath stands out with its luxurious 5-foot soaking tub—perfect for unwinding. Imagine coming home along a scenic route that eases you into relaxation, and stepping into a spacious open layout featuring sleek luxury vinyl flooring that's perfect for both cozy evenings and effortless entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $1,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping, but is otherwise in good condition. Painting the siding and improving the landscaping would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant weathering and possible damage
• Minor Landscaping — Dry grass and lack of greenery

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant weathering and possible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Dry grass and lack of greenery	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $225,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $235,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-14 Listed $245,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-12-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-13 Listed $236,275 MLSU

Property tax history

+150.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +150.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.