2500 E Bogey Dr · Perezville, TX 78572

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 178 Days on market

Built 2001 3,206 sqft lot $220/sqft · 104% above area Est $90k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hidden Valley Ranch, a gated 55+ community offering a wide variety of activities for an active lifestyle. This charming home features fresh interior paint throughout most of the space, along with a combination of hardwood and tile flooring that creates a warm, cohesive feel. The front-facing kitchen includes a bright eat-in dining area, crisp white cabinetry, and plenty of counter space for meal prep. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, plus an additional full bathroom located in the finished, tiled golf cart garage—perfect for guests or extra convenience. Recent exterior updates include newly installed solar screens and freshly painted shutters. Additional highlights include a durable metal roof, low-maintenance rock landscaping, a carport, a rear patio area for outdoor relaxation, and no back neighbors for added privacy. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant community—this is the perfect place to enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living. Schedule an appointment!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fresh interior paint
• 3,206 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• HARDWOOD AND TILE FLOORING
• BRIGHT EAT-IN DINING AREA
• CRISP WHITE CABINETRY
• PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.9% in Perezville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#743 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.81%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
263 Ash St	0.75mi	1/1.0 (-1)	396 (-3%)	3mo	$46,500	$117	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-4,788
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,149
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-03-04
   price $89,900 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   Welcome to Hidden Valley Ranch, a gated 55+ community offering a wide variety of activities for an active lifestyle. This charming home features fresh interior paint throughout most of the space, along with a combination of hardwood and tile flooring that creates a warm, cohesive feel. The front-facing kitchen includes a bright eat-in dining area, crisp white cabinetry, and plenty of counter space for meal prep. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, plus an additional full bathroom located in the finished, tiled golf cart garage—perfect for guests or extra convenience. Recent exterior updates include newly installed solar screens and freshly painted shutters. Additional highlights include a durable metal roof, low-maintenance rock landscaping, a carport, a rear patio area for outdoor relaxation, and no back neighbors for added privacy. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant community—this is the perfect place to enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living. Schedule an appointment!

4. 2025-12-04
   listed $92,000 Active 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   Welcome to Hidden Valley Ranch, a gated 55+ community offering a wide variety of activities for an active lifestyle. This charming home features fresh interior paint throughout most of the space, along with a combination of hardwood and tile flooring that creates a warm, cohesive feel. The front-facing kitchen includes a bright eat-in dining area, crisp white cabinetry, and plenty of counter space for meal prep. The home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, plus an additional full bathroom located in the finished, tiled golf cart garage—perfect for guests or extra convenience. Recent exterior updates include newly installed solar screens and freshly painted shutters. Additional highlights include a durable metal roof, low-maintenance rock landscaping, a carport, a rear patio area for outdoor relaxation, and no back neighbors for added privacy. Move-in ready and located in a vibrant community—this is the perfect place to enjoy comfortable, low-maintenance living. Schedule an appointment!

5. 2024-03-26
   soldstatus
6. 2003-02-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,184/yr (+$99/mo · 256.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Perezville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #743
• US rank: #13748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $89,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $92,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.