TBD S Warren Ave Lot 20-28B · Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT 59701

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 332 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lots
• Approved for well
• Approved for septic

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOTS
• APPROVED FOR WELL
• APPROVED FOR SEPTIC
• CUSTOMIZE A HOME
• BEAUTIFUL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax annual amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Unimproved land; Zoned R2 (Residential Two-Household Medium Density)
• Exterior features: Property has a view; Directions: From Harrison — west on Motor View, south on S Warren; follow until you see signs. Property on the east side.

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.9% in Butte-Silver Bow (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Butte H S (town): math 24% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #73 of 116 in MT (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.4%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Silver Bow County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Silver Bow County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.00%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1160 Water Line Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	3mo	$497,000	$305	56
1351 Motor View Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	8mo	$359,000	$230	56
1435 Sage St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	1mo	$295,000	$228	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $31,147
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $114,520
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59701

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 325 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 321 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 316 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 315 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 314 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 313 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 312 DOM
17. 2025-07-21
    listed $533,560 Active
18. 2025-07-21
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $5,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butte H S
• NCES district ID: 3005310
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,852
• Composite: 30.74/100
• National rank: #6162
• State rank: #73 of 116 in MT

Livability — Butte-Silver Bow (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butte-Silver Bow (balance), MT
• County: Silver Bow County · 34,232 people
• City population: 35,306
• Metro: Butte-Silver Bow, MT
• Population (ZIP): 34,232
• Household income: $60,437
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1060.0

Population outlook (Silver Bow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,745 people
• By 2030: 36,359 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 37,490 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 38,593 · +8.0%
• By 2075: 43,773 · +22.5%
• By 2100: 48,513 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Korean 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Silver Bow

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.0) · D 51.5% · R 44.5% · Other 4.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.0 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+14.2 2012: D+32.5 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.08%
• Current HPI: 268.4972
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.44%
• Metro: Butte-Silver Bow, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-82.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-21 Listed $95,000 BSCMLS
• 2025-07-21 Listed $533,560 BSCMLS