203 Lary St · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 324 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot $119/sqft · 25% below area Est $174k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with loads of potential. Spacious layout, great bones, and a large, fenced backyard. Prime location-Just minutes from CHI Hospital, Walmart, Sam's, and major attractions. Needs updates -- perfect for a flip, rental, or buyers with a vision.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• Prime location
• Detached

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIME LOCATION
• DETACHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $130k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.48%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,524
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -25.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,138
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $27,405
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $799/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $203	+0% $166	+5% $129	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $118	+0% $166	+5% $215	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $199	base $166	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Carl Dr Unit B6 Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	0.31mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	45d	1	0.70mi
143 Alpine St Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.99mi
180 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	45d	1	1.32mi
410 Oakwood Ave Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$999	$1.00	45d	6	1.34mi
200 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,070	$1.20	45d	10	1.40mi
122 Chambers Pt Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1242	$2,100	$1.69	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 309 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 304 DOM
17. 2025-08-22
    price $130,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with loads of potential. Spacious layout, great bones, and a large, fenced backyard. Prime location-Just minutes from CHI Hospital, Walmart, Sam's, and major attractions. Needs updates -- perfect for a flip, rental, or buyers with a vision.

18. 2025-08-22
    price $130,000 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with loads of potential. Spacious layout, great bones, and a large, fenced backyard. Prime location-Just minutes from CHI Hospital, Walmart, Sam's, and major attractions. Needs updates -- perfect for a flip, rental, or buyers with a vision.

19. 2025-07-30
    listed $135,000 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with loads of potential. Spacious layout, great bones, and a large, fenced backyard. Prime location-Just minutes from CHI Hospital, Walmart, Sam's, and major attractions. Needs updates -- perfect for a flip, rental, or buyers with a vision.

20. 2025-07-25
    listed $135,000 New Listing 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with loads of potential. Spacious layout, great bones, and a large, fenced backyard. Prime location-Just minutes from CHI Hospital, Walmart, Sam's, and major attractions. Needs updates -- perfect for a flip, rental, or buyers with a vision.

21. 2003-02-20
    soldstatus $35,000
22. 1996-10-10
    soldstatus $59,000
23. 1996-04-30
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $799 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$799
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $130,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $130,000 HSBOR
• 2025-07-30 Listed $135,000 HSBOR
• 2025-07-25 Listed $135,000 CARMLS
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $799 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.