18585 W Tohono Dr · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$524,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,489 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 8,038 sqft lot $211/sqft · at area comps Est $541k · at est. $155/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home price reflects base price with selected options. The Gourmet Kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a 36'' Gas Cooktop, Wall Oven & Microwave. The Primary Suite has Dual Vanities, and Large Walk-in Closet. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Charger, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf areas--perfect for outdoor enthusiast

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Quartz countertops
• Wall oven

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKTOP
• WALL OVEN
• MICROWAVE
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (52.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (54.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,028 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.53%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,894
• List price: $524,999
• Delta: -2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-213,103
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.50×
• Total profit: $-368,037
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$656 /mo · $7,875/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-1,903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,789

Max offer price $249,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,540	-5% $-1,721	+0% $-1,903	+5% $-2,084	+10% $-2,266
Rent	-10% $-2,091	-5% $-1,997	+0% $-1,903	+5% $-1,809	+10% $-1,715
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,638	-0.5pp $-1,769	base $-1,903	+0.5pp $-2,039	+1.0pp $-2,177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	2d	1	0.65mi
17456 W Ashley Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,350	$1.33	2d	1	0.91mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	2d	1	0.93mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	5d	1	0.93mi
1036 S 177th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,995	$1.22	2d	1	1.09mi
1036 S 177th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,000	$1.22	17d	1	1.09mi
56 S 190th Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.5	2114	$1,995	$0.94	4d	1	1.15mi
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	1.21mi
18620 W Larkspur Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,975	$1.14	11d	1	1.22mi
18582 W Vogel Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,026	$1.17	2d	1	1.27mi
3534 S 182nd Ln Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,150	$1.24	24d	1	1.33mi
392 S 194th Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,095	$1.29	3d	1	1.35mi
3382 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1706	$2,000	$1.17	5d	1	1.38mi
3349 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1890	$2,095	$1.11	2d	1	1.38mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	2d	1	1.41mi
17430 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2277	$1,995	$0.88	2d	1	1.45mi
17421 W Papago St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2522	$2,600	$1.03	15d	1	1.45mi
17415 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	2277	$2,295	$1.01	17d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $524,999 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   Home price reflects base price with selected options. The Gourmet Kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a 36'' Gas Cooktop, Wall Oven & Microwave. The Primary Suite has Dual Vanities, and Large Walk-in Closet. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Charger, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf areas--perfect for outdoor enthusiast

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $529,999 Active 671-char remark

   Show marketing remark (671 chars)

   Home price reflects base price with selected options. The Gourmet Kitchen boasts quartz countertops, a 36'' Gas Cooktop, Wall Oven & Microwave. The Primary Suite has Dual Vanities, and Large Walk-in Closet. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Charger, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf areas--perfect for outdoor enthusiast

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$7,875
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,285
• − Management: −$2,285
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$33,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,931
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $524,999 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $529,999 ARMLS