13393 Mariposa Rd #281 · Victorville, CA 92395

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $97k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, well-kept home in great location. Oversized lot gives lots of room for privacy & sits slightly above other mobiles for addditional seclusion. Brand new washer and dryer included, older refrigerator also included. Wheelchair access and view of north Victorville.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• GAS RANGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Bear Valley Rd to Mariposa to property in question
• Financial info: Land lease applies (monthly); Rent includes pool and trash
• HOA & community: Senior community; Association amenities include pool, spa, playground, dog park, tennis, biking trails, clubhouse, storage area, and common RV parking; Pet rules apply; Park name: Victor Villa; Manager approval required for residency; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (2 spaces); Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Standard electric service; Natural gas connected; Public sewer; District/public water; Electricity, gas, sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Entry on main level; Located on a private, paved road
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Public records used for year built
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Community pool; Shed; Chain link fencing; Lot is level/flat; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with bathtub and shower (shower in tub); Closet in bathroom; Quartz counters; Remodeled/upgraded bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home; Updated/remodeled condition; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; Community spa access
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry in a dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mojave Vista Elementary (857 students, 91% FRL); Lakeview Leadership Academy (1,163 students, 73% FRL); Victor Valley High (2,045 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.20%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13393 Mariposa Rd SPC 126	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$105,500	$78	78
13393 Mariposa Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	16mo	$87,000	$70	78
13393 Mariposa Rd #220	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	4mo	$65,000	$48	76
13393 Mariposa Rd Spc 251 Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	8mo	$115,000	$87	75
13393 Mariposa Rd #225	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	20mo	$130,000	$104	75
13393 Mariposa Rd #255	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$112,000	$83	74
13393 Mariposa #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	6mo	$67,000	$58	74
13393 Mariposa Rd #42	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	11mo	$78,000	$68	69
13393 Mariposa Rd #167	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$85,000	$63	68
13393 Mariposa Rd #190	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	15mo	$65,000	$56	68
13393 Mariposa Rd #92	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (+15%)	10mo	$144,000	$101	58
15616 Calico	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$290,900	$269	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $54,066
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $140,966
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92395

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $1,012

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,067	-5% $1,039	+0% $1,012	+5% $984	+10% $956
Rent	-10% $855	-5% $933	+0% $1,012	+5% $1,090	+10% $1,168
Rate	-1.0pp $1,052	-0.5pp $1,032	base $1,012	+0.5pp $991	+1.0pp $970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15678 Inca Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,200	$1.57	18d	1	0.20mi
13632 Nassau Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,990	$1.53	0d	1	0.38mi
15450 Nisqualli Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,146	$2.28	0d	7	0.44mi
13024 Rainwood Ct Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,800	$1.55	0d	1	0.56mi
13925 Burning Tree Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	0d	1	0.84mi
12692 Senecio Ave Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,300	$1.80	0d	1	0.87mi
13520 Third Ave Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,850	$1.85	0d	1	1.13mi
16100 Pebble Beach Dr Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,750	$2.03	0d	6	1.18mi
14257 Sage St Victorville, CA	3.0	3.0	1319	$2,500	$1.90	0d	1	1.19mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	0d	4	1.27mi
14299 La Paz Dr Unit 3A Victorville, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$1,495	$1.70	0d	1	1.38mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 225 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	3d	1	1.39mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 209 Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	826	$1,550	$1.88	0d	1	1.39mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 126 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	16d	1	1.39mi
16350 Pebble Beach Dr Unit 226 Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,450	$1.92	0d	1	1.44mi
13860 Navarro Dr Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,850	$1.47	0d	1	1.44mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	0d	14	1.45mi
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,842	$2.29	0d	10	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $80,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-02-08
    price $80,000
16. 2025-12-12
    listed $87,995 Active
17. 2008-08-01
    historical
18. 2008-01-23
    listed $39,900
19. 2006-05-12
    soldstatus $56,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious, well-kept home in great location. Oversized lot gives lots of room for privacy & sits slightly above other mobiles for addditional seclusion. Brand new washer and dryer included, older refrigerator also included. Wheelchair access and view of north Victorville.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $11,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,773
• After-tax cash flow: $9,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,375
• Household income: $62,102
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2449.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.10%
• Current HPI: 395.2836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $87,995 CRMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-01-23 Listed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2006-05-12 Sold (MLS) $56,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $76 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.