21657 Pinecrest Dr · Bly, OR 97622

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Other public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1976 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

Key facts

• Quiet rural setting
• Small workshop
• Fenced pasture

Tags

• FENCED PASTURE
• ADDITIONAL FENCED AREAS
• SMALL WORKSHOP
• LARGER SHED
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• COUNTRY LIVING ON ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $135k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $29,425
• Equity at exit: $60,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $86,385
• Equity at exit: $93,549

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97622

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-04-13
    status Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

13. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

14. 2026-04-01
    status Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

15. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

16. 2025-12-26
    listed $135,000 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Set on 1.05 acres in the peaceful Bly area, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, privacy, and scenic surroundings. The property includes a small fenced pasture behind the home along with additional fenced areas, making it well-suited for small livestock or hobby farming. A small workshop and a larger shed provide plenty of room for storage, projects, or equipment. Surrounded by mature trees, the property enjoys beautiful views and a quiet rural setting. With solid potential and room to personalize, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy country living on acreage.

17. 2007-11-28
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 1992-01-24
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $347
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — Bly

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 276

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 19% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+513.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-04-03 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-03-09 Pending — MLSCO
• 2025-12-26 Listed $135,000 MLSCO
• 2007-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $267 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.