536 W Lincoln Ave · Coolidge, AZ 85128

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1956 7,628 sqft lot $193/sqft · 10% below area Est $228k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in downtown Coolidge, conveniently located for shopping, schools and restaurants. Fully updated interior featuring new paint throughout, new bathroom tub, vanity etc... Kitchen has been updated with countertops and new stove as well as new flooring throughout! Perfect opportunity for affordable housing in a convenient location!!!

Key facts

• New stove
• New bathroom tub
• Updated interior

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• NEW BATHROOM TUB
• NEW STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($21/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 260 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $205k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,403 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,923
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -10.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
694 W Coolidge Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,115 (+5%)	13mo	$279,500	$251	66
325 W Northern Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,067 (+0%)	2mo	$204,000	$191	64
426 W Gibson Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+10%)	1mo	$175,000	$150	56
541 W Central Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+8%)	19mo	$150,000	$131	52
667 W Pinkley Ave W	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,221 (+15%)	6mo	$200,000	$164	45
543 W Sunset Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	946 (-11%)	9mo	$165,000	$174	42
320 W Pima Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	935 (-12%)	8mo	$203,900	$218	42
555 W Northern Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	997 (-6%)	23mo	$198,000	$199	40
612 N 4th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,101 (+4%)	22mo	$215,000	$195	38
721 W Pima Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+14%)	12mo	$167,500	$138	38
1063 W Verde Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+15%)	2mo	$248,675	$204	36
1034 W Starview Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+15%)	22mo	$270,000	$222	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-36,268
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-43,902
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85128

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
447 W Seagoe Ave Unit A Coolidge, AZ	2.0	1.5	752	$1,000	$1.33	24d	1	0.18mi
393 W Seagoe Ave Unit B Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,250	$1.21	43d	1	0.23mi
232 W Elm Ave Unit B Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.5	1452	$1,350	$0.93	43d	1	0.40mi
144 W Lincoln Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,299	$1.15	3d	1	0.45mi
350 W Spruell Ave Coolidge, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,095	$1.42	1d	1	0.67mi
440 W Taylor Ave Coolidge, AZ	2.0	1.0	992	$1,250	$1.26	15d	1	0.75mi
313 E Central Ave Coolidge, AZ	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	0.76mi
342 W Taylor Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.77mi
1204 W Prior Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	43d	1	0.79mi
392 E Dirkley Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.5	1440	$1,700	$1.18	43d	1	0.80mi
311 W Bealey Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	20d	1	0.86mi
623 N Main St Unit 102 Coolidge, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	43d	1	0.88mi
1660 S Wooten St Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.5	1385	$1,500	$1.08	5d	1	0.98mi
227 W Douglas Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.98mi
816 W Mid Way St Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	1.00mi
228 W Hess Ave Coolidge, AZ	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	24d	1	1.05mi
131 E Patton Ave Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1221	$2,200	$1.80	43d	1	1.11mi
940 N Sonora St Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,500	$1.16	43d	1	1.11mi
1451 W Pinkley Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,600	$1.07	18d	1	1.17mi
1224 N Palm Ln Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1280	$1,800	$1.41	20d	1	1.18mi
903 N California St Coolidge, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,602	$1.64	17d	8	1.20mi
903 N California St Coolidge, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,602	$1.64	5d	1	1.20mi
1105 N Cota Ln Coolidge, AZ	3.0	1.5	1321	$2,500	$1.89	43d	1	1.21mi
203 S 16th St Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.5	1389	$1,550	$1.12	24d	1	1.23mi
961 W Toltec Dr Coolidge, AZ	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,495	$1.02	24d	1	1.27mi
1759 W Wilson Ave Coolidge, AZ	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2025-11-01
   price $205,000 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   Charming home located in downtown Coolidge, conveniently located for shopping, schools and restaurants. Fully updated interior featuring new paint throughout, new bathroom tub, vanity etc... Kitchen has been updated with countertops and new stove as well as new flooring throughout! Perfect opportunity for affordable housing in a convenient location!!!

2. 2025-09-12
   listed $210,000 Active 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   Charming home located in downtown Coolidge, conveniently located for shopping, schools and restaurants. Fully updated interior featuring new paint throughout, new bathroom tub, vanity etc... Kitchen has been updated with countertops and new stove as well as new flooring throughout! Perfect opportunity for affordable housing in a convenient location!!!

3. 2025-08-29
   historical
4. 2025-08-16
   status Active
5. 2025-08-16
   historical
6. 2025-06-16
   price $210,000
7. 2025-04-03
   price $215,000
8. 2025-04-02
   price $210,000
9. 2025-03-15
   listed $230,000 Active
10. 2015-05-11
    soldstatus $52,600 Closed
11. 2015-05-11
    soldstatus $52,600
12. 2015-05-04
    status Pending
13. 2015-04-01
    listed $59,900 Active
14. 2014-12-31
    historical
15. 2014-03-12
    listed $59,900 Active
16. 2013-12-09
    soldstatus $28,000 Closed
17. 2013-11-27
    status Pending
18. 2013-10-26
    price $34,900
19. 2013-10-22
    price $39,500
20. 2013-09-15
    price $43,500
21. 2013-08-14
    listed $49,900 Active
22. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus $71,000
23. 2007-02-22
    soldstatus $71,000
24. 2007-02-14
    historical
25. 2007-01-08
    listed $75,000
26. 2004-08-04
    historical
27. 2004-03-04
    listed $58,500
28. 1988-07-26
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$852/yr (+$71/mo · 169.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coolidge Unified District (4442)
• NCES district ID: 0402320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,182
• Composite: 10.35/100
• National rank: #9787
• State rank: #229 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Coolidge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #22344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coolidge, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 19,487
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 19,487
• Household income: $65,477
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 29% Two or more races 22% Native American 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.95%
• Current HPI: 280.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+632.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $205,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed $230,000 ARMLS
• 2015-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,600 Public Records
• 2015-05-11 Sold (MLS) $52,600 ARMLS
• 2015-05-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-04-01 Listed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2014-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-03-12 Listed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2013-12-09 Sold (MLS) $28,000 ARMLS
• 2013-11-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-10-26 Price Changed $34,900 ARMLS
• 2013-10-22 Price Changed $39,500 ARMLS
• 2013-09-15 Price Changed $43,500 ARMLS
• 2013-08-14 Listed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-22 Sold (MLS) $71,000 ARMLS
• 2007-02-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-04 Listed $58,500 ARMLS
• 1988-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.