107 Kellen Way · Bodfish, CA 93205

$75,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 556 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1961 0.27 ac lot Est $63k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Have you thought of owning a home, near a lake, near the mountains that's affordable? This cute bungalow could be your basecamp for adventures just waiting to happen. This one bedroom one bath cutie also is on it's own lot. No space rent here. And there is a garage for those toys and a ManCave off the garage. So many possibilities. Located within close proximity to hiking trails, the lake and the river. Come check it out!!

Key facts

• Garage
• Near a lake
• Own lot

Tags

• NEAR A LAKE
• NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
• OWN LOT
• GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential single-wide mobile home
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Has a view; Lot zoned R-1 MH

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Gas oven; Gas range; Evaporative cooling; Wood heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($522 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $76k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,367 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.59%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,384
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Park Way	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (-1%)	20mo	$47,500	$86	70
412 Park Way	0.33mi	1/1.0	510 (-8%)	6mo	$58,000	$114	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $66,365
• Equity at exit: $64,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $172,042
• Equity at exit: $135,003

Cash invested: $21,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93205

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $75,500

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $472	+0% $451	+5% $430	+10% $408
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $405	+0% $451	+5% $497	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $470	base $451	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,875
• Closing costs: $2,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,500 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,500 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $75,500 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $89,000 Active
18. 1990-02-21
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥93°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,229
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$2,196
• Taxable income: $4,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $4,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bodfish

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1207
• US rank: #26114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bodfish, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,191

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 447.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+345.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $89,000 SSMLS
• 1990-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.