4885 Bayberry #238 · McKee City, NJ 08330

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Condo public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 $625/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

* * UPDATE 06/10/26 * * There are eight (8) Condos for Sale in this development FOR SALE listed between $155k to $233k. This one is the $155k because it needs sweat equity but the Seller is now offering to contribute to the new HOA fees. They HOA needs to evaluate the fees each fiscal year. Contact the listing agent or your designated Buyers Agent to find out more! 4885 Bayberry Place in Harding Run II offers an opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build sweat equity in a desirable Mays Landing community. This 2-bedroom condominium in Harding Run II is priced below market value at and is ideal for cash buyers, conventional financing, or conventional renovation loans. Located

Key facts

• Community pool
• Community amenities
• Clubhouse access

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE ACCESS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $625; Association-managed; HOA covers maintenance, management, trash, and pool; Community amenities include clubhouse/clubroom, pool, and tennis court

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned exterior parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Condo (Harding Run 2); 2-story building; Second-floor end unit (top floor)
• Construction: Over 25 years old
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Pets allowed (subject to restrictions); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: End unit on the second (top) floor; Unit has one level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Gas stove; Refrigerator; Washer; Dining area; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-273/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $155k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,982 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $83,430
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $247,742
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,175/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$625
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $150,982

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $21	+0% $-23	+5% $-67	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-110	+0% $-23	+5% $64	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $17	base $-23	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,825	$2.35	14d	1	0.66mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	44d	1	0.87mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.87mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,810	$2.36	14d	18	0.99mi
2703 Mimosa Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1268	$2,200	$1.74	14d	1	1.03mi
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	14d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $625 · $7,500/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $155,000 Active
18. 2002-04-30
    soldstatus $73,000
19. 1994-04-28
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,175 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$29/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,175
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$7,500
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$573
• After-tax cash flow: $300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+282.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $155,000 SJSRMLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,175 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.