9911 Trellis Vine Way · Ruskin, FL 34219

$482,040

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,615 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 6,085 sqft lot $74/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Talon is a stunning 2-story home featuring a bright open layout, white cabinets, and a sleek built-in kitchen. A spacious loft adds versatility, while expansive windows capture beautiful water views throughout the living spaces.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fitness center
• White cabinets

Tags

• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL WITH SLIDE TOWER
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS CENTER ISLAND
• WHITE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applies
• Financial info: Other annual assessment listed; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by FirstService Residential (association approval required); Monthly HOA approximately $74.13 (quarterly fee shown as $222.39); Community features include street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Facing northwest; Under construction (projected completion Aug 25, 2026); New construction model: TALON
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Pulte Home Company, LLC (license CBC1262018); Permit: BLD2507-5313; Building name/number: TALON
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalks; Landscaped lot; Paved driveway and roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; In-wall pest control system; Pest guard system; Blinds on windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on upper level; Gas water heater; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $482k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $342,560 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-113,034
• Equity at exit: $71,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-169,526
• Equity at exit: $41,678

Cash invested: $134,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,528
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,513/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,918

Max offer price $413,280

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-253	+0% $-389	+5% $-526	+10% $-662
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-525	+0% $-389	+5% $-254	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-267	base $-389	+0.5pp $-514	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,510
• Closing costs: $14,461
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	0.73mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	0.96mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	0.98mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	4d	1	1.00mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	18d	1	1.03mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	25d	1	1.05mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	18d	1	1.08mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.10mi
8438 Blue Wave Ln Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	25d	1	1.11mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	5d	1	1.26mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	21d	1	1.33mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.39mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.41mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $482,040 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $482,040 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $482,040 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $482,040 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $482,040 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $482,040 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $482,040 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $482,040 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $482,040 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $482,040 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $482,040 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $482,040 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $482,040 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $482,040 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $482,040 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $482,040 Active
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $482,040 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    The Talon is a stunning 2-story home featuring a bright open layout, white cabinets, and a sleek built-in kitchen. A spacious loft adds versatility, while expansive windows capture beautiful water views throughout the living spaces.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,513 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,001 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,513
• − Insurance: −$2,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,289
• − Management: −$3,289
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$14,023
• Taxable loss: −$13,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $482,040 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $482,040 Zillow