18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 73 Lot 73 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$264,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 265 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition 9,905 sqft lot $169/sqft · 14% above area Est $232k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1975 LOVELY HOME WITH MANY UPGRADES!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an added California room at 1560 esf. Offered for only $279,000!! This stunning home is a must see with lovely views of the golf course and the local mountains. This home has many features to offer such as a new roof, new flooring throughout, new washer/dryer and refrigerator, fresh paint inside and outside, new water heater, new fixtures, plus much more. There is a covered back deck that is perfect for sitting and enjoying the quiet and the beautiful wildlife that live here in Skyline Ranch, it is also perfect for privacy and Bar-B-ques. This home is located in Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in Valley Center. Currently offering free golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, dog park, gym, senior community, and more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park where the monthly space rent is 1750.00. Please come and see this amazing home.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New washer dryer
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WASHER DRYER
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $264k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.6% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $225k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.44%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: 13.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	86
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-2%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	84
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (0%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	82
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-2%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	74
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 89	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,770 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,784 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$154	72
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	72
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	68
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 18 Spc 18	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	11mo	$285,000	$159	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $9,996
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $76,801
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,010	-5% $919	+0% $828	+5% $737	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $695	+0% $828	+5% $960	+10% $1,093
Rate	-1.0pp $961	-0.5pp $895	base $828	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,000 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,000 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,000 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,000 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,000 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,000 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $264,000 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 244 DOM
17. 2026-01-23
    price $279,000 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    1975 LOVELY HOME WITH MANY UPGRADES!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an added California room at 1560 esf. Offered for only $279,000!! This stunning home is a must see with lovely views of the golf course and the local mountains. This home has many features to offer such as a new roof, new flooring throughout, new washer/dryer and refrigerator, fresh paint inside and outside, new water heater, new fixtures, plus much more. There is a covered back deck that is perfect for sitting and enjoying the quiet and the beautiful wildlife that live here in Skyline Ranch, it is also perfect for privacy and Bar-B-ques. This home is located in Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in Valley Center. Currently offering free golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, dog park, gym, senior community, and more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park where the monthly space rent is 1750.00. Please come and see this amazing home.

18. 2025-09-28
    listed $289,000 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    1975 LOVELY HOME WITH MANY UPGRADES!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath with an added California room at 1560 esf. Offered for only $279,000!! This stunning home is a must see with lovely views of the golf course and the local mountains. This home has many features to offer such as a new roof, new flooring throughout, new washer/dryer and refrigerator, fresh paint inside and outside, new water heater, new fixtures, plus much more. There is a covered back deck that is perfect for sitting and enjoying the quiet and the beautiful wildlife that live here in Skyline Ranch, it is also perfect for privacy and Bar-B-ques. This home is located in Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in Valley Center. Currently offering free golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, dog park, gym, senior community, and more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park where the monthly space rent is 1750.00. Please come and see this amazing home.

19. 2023-02-21
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed Sale 873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (873 chars)

    1975 MANUFACTURED HOME WITH GARAGE AND LOVELY VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE - Offered for ONLY $239,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths in a great location of the park. Square footage is estimated at 1560. This home has both a garage and a carport for extra parking. It has a California room that can be used for an office or crafting area. The living room has a breath-taking view of the golf course and the mountains. The home is nice and bright with many windows facing the backyard and the golf course. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 988.32. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

20. 2023-01-21
    status Pending Sale 873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (873 chars)

    1975 MANUFACTURED HOME WITH GARAGE AND LOVELY VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE - Offered for ONLY $239,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths in a great location of the park. Square footage is estimated at 1560. This home has both a garage and a carport for extra parking. It has a California room that can be used for an office or crafting area. The living room has a breath-taking view of the golf course and the mountains. The home is nice and bright with many windows facing the backyard and the golf course. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 988.32. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

21. 2022-11-03
    listed $239,000 Active 873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (873 chars)

    1975 MANUFACTURED HOME WITH GARAGE AND LOVELY VIEW OF THE GOLF COURSE - Offered for ONLY $239,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths in a great location of the park. Square footage is estimated at 1560. This home has both a garage and a carport for extra parking. It has a California room that can be used for an office or crafting area. The living room has a breath-taking view of the golf course and the mountains. The home is nice and bright with many windows facing the backyard and the golf course. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 988.32. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable income: $6,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $8,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1975 manufactured home in Skyline Ranch Country Club is in good condition with recent upgrades and a beautiful view of the golf course and mountains.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-21 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CRMLS
• 2023-01-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $239,000 CRMLS