28 Pooley Pl · Buffalo, NY 14213

$139,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1880 3,200 sqft lot Est $183k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 Bedroom single family home on the Citys west side. Circuit Breakers, 1st floor laundry, Newer kitchen cabinets, low taxes, close to all amenities and more.

Key facts

• Stylish backsplash
• Refreshed bathroom
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SLEEK WHITE CABINETRY
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• CONTEMPORARY FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,793/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $139k implies a 435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.42%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,055
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Pooley Pl	0.00mi	5/1.0	1,181 (0%)	1mo	$159,000	$135	99
151 Forest Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-0%)	20mo	$230,000	$196	72
12 Pooley Pl	0.03mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (-5%)	24mo	$175,000	$155	66
175 Garner Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (+7%)	7mo	$105,000	$83	59
9 Congress St	0.62mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	8mo	$130,000	$108	57
130 Bird Ave	0.08mi	5/1.0	1,003 (-15%)	19mo	$185,000	$184	56
74 Baynes St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,075 (-9%)	4mo	$195,925	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $124,174
• Equity at exit: $101,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $286,366
• Equity at exit: $196,309

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$2,560	$1.96	1d	14	0.13mi
309 Bird Ave Unit H Buffalo, NY	6.0	2.0	1100	$4,900	$4.45	43d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-16
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2017-02-22
   soldstatus $26,000 Closed Sale or Rented 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   5 Bedroom single family home on the Citys west side. Circuit Breakers, 1st floor laundry, Newer kitchen cabinets, low taxes, close to all amenities and more.

4. 2017-01-17
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   5 Bedroom single family home on the Citys west side. Circuit Breakers, 1st floor laundry, Newer kitchen cabinets, low taxes, close to all amenities and more.

5. 2016-11-01
   listed $35,000 Active 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   5 Bedroom single family home on the Citys west side. Circuit Breakers, 1st floor laundry, Newer kitchen cabinets, low taxes, close to all amenities and more.

6. 2016-04-29
   historical
7. 2016-04-20
   listed $26,500 Active
8. 2016-03-05
   historical
9. 2015-11-20
   status Pending Sale
10. 2015-11-03
    listed $26,500 Active
11. 2009-02-27
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,682
• − Management: −$2,682
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $13,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,251
• After-tax cash flow: $11,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+363.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $139,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-22 Sold (MLS) $26,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-17 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-04-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-04-20 Listed $26,500 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-11-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-11-03 Listed $26,500 WNYREIS
• 2009-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.