1315 Dillon St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$80,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1964 Est $91k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Filled with years of family love and memories, this 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a full basement, attached garage, and fenced backyard, there’s plenty of space to grow, gather, and make it your own. With just a little cosmetic updates, this home offers the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or a growing family looking to build lasting memories. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Full basement
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Needham / Dillon cross streets
• Financial info: $1,400 annual tax (reported)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Above-grade finished area: 1,404; Below-grade finished area: 529

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.95%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,260
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1339 Essling St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	15mo	$37,000	$28	70
26 Alamo Ct	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-7%)	9mo	$22,000	$17	66
1308 Findley St	0.17mi	4/1.0	1,500 (+7%)	21mo	$38,000	$25	61
1515 Casimir St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-6%)	18mo	$37,000	$28	60
2415 Needham St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,228 (-12%)	12mo	$79,900	$65	59
3 Harmony Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-6%)	7mo	$101,000	$77	54
31 Harmony Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (-8%)	18mo	$103,000	$79	40
35 Harmony Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (-8%)	20mo	$95,000	$73	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $25,021
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $70,700
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $642	-5% $619	+0% $596	+5% $574	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $541	+0% $596	+5% $652	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $617	base $596	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Filled with years of family love and memories, this 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a full basement, attached garage, and fenced backyard, there’s plenty of space to grow, gather, and make it your own. With just a little cosmetic updates, this home offers the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or a growing family looking to build lasting memories. Sold as-is.

3. 2026-06-17
   listed $80,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Filled with years of family love and memories, this 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath home is ready for its next chapter. Featuring a full basement, attached garage, and fenced backyard, there’s plenty of space to grow, gather, and make it your own. With just a little cosmetic updates, this home offers the perfect opportunity for first-time buyers or a growing family looking to build lasting memories. Sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,010 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $5,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-17 Listed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · -22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.