1561 Tuscarora Rd · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$39,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1955 4.50 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for your next project, this could be it. Quaint ranch featuring two bedrooms and a full bath, It needs your vision and your toolbelt to make it a home once again. Perfect for owner occupancy or investment purposes. Close to Military Rd with retail and restaurants, its in a great location. Easy to show!

Key facts

• 4.5 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Existing (year built details listed as existing)
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Irregular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street; Lot dimensions approximately 242 x 460

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #163 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.57%
• DSCR: 4.72
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1020 Sunnyside	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-3%)	1mo	$29,900	$36	76
1284 92nd St	0.48mi	3/2.0	960 (+11%)	7mo	$225,000	$234	51
1216 90th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	924 (+7%)	11mo	$225,000	$244	50
1266 91st St	0.43mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	9mo	$192,048	$200	48
674 79th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	937 (+8%)	4mo	$165,000	$176	46
9321 Saint Johns Pkwy	0.52mi	3/1.0	960 (+11%)	8mo	$210,000	$219	45
1032 91st St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	823 (-5%)	7mo	$165,000	$200	43
1025 90th St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-4%)	15mo	$100,000	$120	39
1118 91st St	0.61mi	3/1.5	955 (+10%)	14mo	$147,000	$154	38
1008 N Military Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+7%)	10mo	$165,000	$179	38
1122 93rd St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	942 (+9%)	10mo	$180,000	$191	36
677 78th St	0.68mi	3/1.0	986 (+14%)	11mo	$183,600	$186	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $43,110
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.08×
• Total profit: $101,432
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $792	+0% $778	+5% $764	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $725	+0% $778	+5% $831	+10% $883
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $788	base $778	+0.5pp $768	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8833 Pear Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1096	$1,700	$1.55	2d	1	0.62mi
1735 Caravelle Dr Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$891	$1.20	2d	1	1.05mi
730 66th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	748	$963	$1.29	2d	1	1.29mi
51 S 86th St Unit 11B Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,100	$1.53	3d	1	1.34mi
8405 Buffalo Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	706	$850	$1.20	12d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $39,900
3. 2026-04-22
   status Active
4. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-17
   listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,281
• − Management: −$1,281
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $7,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620850
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,051
• Composite: 57.53/100
• National rank: #1067
• State rank: #163 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $42,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,418 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.