16137 Lauderdale St · Spring Hill, FL 34604

$182,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled single-wide mobile home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This home has been fully gutted and thoughtfully updated throughout, featuring a brand-new AC unit and modern finishes. Enjoy a bright, airy interior filled with natural light, plus a newly built concrete slab screened room-12x21 perfect for relaxing or entertaining.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Built 1977
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• NEW AC UNIT
• CONCRETE SLAB SCREENED ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($687/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $182k implies a 1725% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,831 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,392
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16124 Fruitville St	0.09mi	2/2.0	660 (-2%)	3mo	$90,000	$136	90
16123 Sarasota St	0.12mi	2/1.0	708 (+5%)	7mo	$90,000	$127	76
16137 Melbourne St	0.34mi	2/2.0	748 (+11%)	11mo	$170,000	$227	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,052
• Equity at exit: $27,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,222
• Equity at exit: $15,779

Cash invested: $51,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $182,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $109	+0% $57	+5% $6	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-2	+0% $57	+5% $116	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $104	base $57	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,625
• Closing costs: $5,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,703	$1.77	2d	44	0.95mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,500 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $182,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $182,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $182,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $182,500 Active
16. 2012-11-26
    soldstatus $10,000
17. 1992-08-28
    soldstatus $84,700
18. 1991-10-01
    soldstatus $12,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,515 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,223
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$5,309
• Taxable loss: −$2,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1383.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $182,500 FSBO.com
• 2012-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $84,700 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.