1031 County Route 29 · Oswego, NY 13126

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1915 0.39 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country home with many updates and some finishing work left to do. Enclosed front porch begins your tour of the home. The living room features both vinyl flooring and carpet. Great sized kitchen with plenty of room for storage and table area. Deck off the back of the kitchen. First floor bonus room that leads to first floor full bath. The upstairs has 3 bedrooms - 2 are finished - one needs finishing. Additional full bath. Detached garage for your vehicle or storage needs.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Deck off the back
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• VINYL FLOORING
• DECK OFF THE BACK
• FIRST FLOOR BONUS ROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Water connected (public); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Existing (previously built)
• Construction: Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Porch; Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $21,123
• Equity at exit: $27,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $107,116
• Equity at exit: $21,779

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $526	+0% $484	+5% $441	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $410	+0% $484	+5% $558	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $522	base $484	+0.5pp $445	+1.0pp $406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   remarks 477-char remark
7. 2026-05-30
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $4,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-51.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2023-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $306,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,694 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.