238 Hamlin Hwy · Mount Cobb, PA 18444

$204,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1988 2.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country living at its finest! Nestled on 2.4 beautifully maintained acres, this charming ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and convenience. Set back from the road with a long, secluded driveway, the property is heavily wooded for exceptional privacy and a true retreat-like setting. Wildlife is abundant, creating a serene atmosphere where you can enjoy quiet mornings and relaxing evenings surrounded by nature. The land itself is a dream for anyone who loves the outdoors. Multiple mature fruit trees--including peach, apple, and cherry--are scattered throughout the property, along with blackberry and blueberry bushes lining the grounds. Raised ga

Key facts

• Blueberry bushes
• Mature fruit trees
• Raised garden beds

Tags

• SECLUDED DRIVEWAY
• HEAVILY WOODED
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• BLACKBERRY BUSHES
• BLUEBERRY BUSHES
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#642 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $204k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $189,280 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $120,044
• Equity at exit: $184,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $346,681
• Equity at exit: $397,299

Cash invested: $57,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18444

• Home prices YoY: 24.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,072
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,418/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,720

Max offer price $204,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $194	+0% $136	+5% $78	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $61	+0% $136	+5% $211	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $188	base $136	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,125
• Closing costs: $6,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   status Active
3. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-23
   listed $204,500 Active
5. 2025-10-08
   historical $1,800
6. 2025-09-16
   listed $1,800
7. 2025-09-11
   historical $1,800
8. 2025-08-20
   price $1,800
9. 2025-07-16
   listed $2,200
10. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $127,720
11. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus $127,720
12. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus $127,720
13. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus
14. 2020-01-21
    listed $124,000
15. 2020-01-21
    listed $124,000
16. 2014-03-04
    listed $127,888
17. 2012-01-10
    soldstatus $122,000
18. 2008-06-23
    listed $127,000
19. 1999-05-24
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 1986-08-27
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,418 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,455
• − Property taxes: −$2,418
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$5,949
• Taxable loss: −$1,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $2,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Cobb

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #6245

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,681

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.51%
• Current HPI: 428.8661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2172.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-02 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-23 Listed $204,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $1,800 GSBR
• 2025-09-16 Listed for Rent $1,800 GSBR
• 2025-09-11 Rental Removed $1,800 GSBR
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $1,800 GSBR
• 2025-07-16 Listed for Rent $2,200 GSBR
• 2020-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $127,720 Public Records
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) $127,720 PWMLS
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) $127,720 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2020-01-21 Listed $124,000 PWMLS
• 2020-01-21 Listed $124,000 PWMLS
• 2014-03-04 Listed $127,888 PMAR
• 2012-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-23 Listed $127,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1999-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,418 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.