43 Clipper Ln · Modesto, CA 95356

$47,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adult 55 plus park and very nice with many amenities. Home needs TLC with 3/2 double wide and 1440 sq ft situated on large lot. With some newpaint, flooring and other updates home can shine

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1974
• Listed 62 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount field present but listing indicates no land lease)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; 220 volts in laundry; Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Fixer condition; Built in 1974; Silvercrest make (manufactured home); Aluminum skirting
• Construction: Other roof material
• Exterior features: Porch; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room; Porch; Kitchen and family room combined; Laminate kitchen counters; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups with 220 volts in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.2% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,650 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.06%
• DSCR: 6.70
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Schooner Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$118,840	$83	82
67 Clipper	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$125,000	$93	76
19 Schooner Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$114,500	$85	75
93 Schooner Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	3mo	$150,000	$116	73
195 Schooner Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,322 (-8%)	4mo	$132,000	$100	72
132 Sloop	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$138,000	$103	71
68 Clipper	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	14mo	$160,000	$119	69
3955 Coffee #53	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$81,900	$57	67
22 Schooner Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	14mo	$115,000	$86	64
4125 Mchenry Ave #107	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$80,000	$56	61
30 Schooner #30	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$117,500	$94	52
3955 Coffee Rd #71	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	11mo	$95,000	$73	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $76,255
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.87×
• Total profit: $157,888
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $1,419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	23d	1	0.60mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	13d	1	0.68mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	21d	1	0.78mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	13d	1	0.87mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	1.06mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	13d	10	1.15mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	23d	1	1.21mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	13d	1	1.21mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	13d	10	1.30mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	1.40mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	13d	1	1.47mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	1.49mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	13d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,500 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $47,500 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $52,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 189-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $52,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $17,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,154
• After-tax cash flow: $12,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior walls. Some cosmetic updates, such as painting and cleaning gutters, can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B