159 WILKINSON Ave · Jersey City, NJ 07305

$549,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $751k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Detached two family offering a total of 5 bedrooms, office room and 2 baths, with a large private backyard. Situated in one of Jersey City’s emerging neighborhoods, this property presents an excellent opportunity for investors or owner occupants seeking space, flexibility, and long term upside. Minutes Hudson-Bergen Light Rail, shopping and other transportation.

Key facts

• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• HUDSON-BERGEN LIGHT RAIL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No parking available
• Home design: Multifamily layout with separate kitchens and living areas
• Construction: Partial finished basement
• Exterior features: Aluminum/vinyl exterior finish; Lot 11

Interior

• Kitchen: Two kitchens (one on each floor)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on each floor)
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Gas heating; Window A/C units
• Interior features: Partial finished basement; Two living rooms (one on each floor); One dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $331k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.8% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,311/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 4975% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $549k implies a 707% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,089 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $750,607
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Myrtle Ave #1	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,390 (+2%)	14mo	$1,500,000	$628	74
307 Bergen Ave #302	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (+1%)	13mo	$399,900	$169	60
144 Bergen Ave Unit 5F	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,187 (-7%)	23mo	$617,000	$282	58
542 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-2%)	12mo	$842,000	$366	48
307 Bergen Ave #303	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,667 (+13%)	10mo	$689,000	$258	47
145 CLERK St	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,148 (-9%)	20mo	$686,000	$319	46
22 LONG St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,085 (-11%)	7mo	$550,000	$264	35
405 BERGEN Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-15%)	12mo	$685,000	$343	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-158,606
• Equity at exit: $81,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-240,264
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 6 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Jersey City: 6 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Control Ordinance covers buildings 4+ units pre-1986.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07305

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$529 /mo · $6,347/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $-1,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,603

Max offer price $368,629

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
177 Wegman Pkwy Jersey City, NJ	3.0	1.0	2592	$2,500	$0.96	22d	1	0.15mi
190 Dwight St Jersey City, NJ	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,950	$1.51	3d	1	0.23mi
15 Orient Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	24d	1	0.26mi
144 Fulton Ave Unit A Jersey City, NJ	4.0	2.5	2800	$3,600	$1.29	22d	1	0.28mi
59 Arlington Ave Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	20d	1	0.29mi
332 Stegman Pkwy Unit A Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,900	$1.32	17d	1	0.43mi
332 Stegman Pkwy Unit A Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,900	$1.32	24d	1	0.43mi
291 Forrest St Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,800	$1.75	24d	1	0.47mi
22 Wegman Ct Jersey City, NJ	4.0	1.5	2700	$4,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.51mi
355 W Side Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.62mi
20 Fisk St Unit A Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.5	2000	$3,675	$1.84	24d	1	0.67mi
396 Cator Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	4.0	2.5	2200	$3,500	$1.59	24d	1	0.80mi
150 Clendenny Ave Fl 2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,500	$2.06	24d	1	0.88mi
312 Garfield Ave #2 Jersey City, NJ	4.0	2.5	2400	$4,600	$1.92	24d	1	0.96mi
41 Bentley Ave #1 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	3.5	2165	$5,500	$2.54	13d	1	0.97mi
81 Crescent Ave Unit 1470338P Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1797	$7,265	$4.04	8d	1	1.03mi
199 Belmont Ave Jersey City, NJ	3.0	1.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	1.08mi
126 Gifford Ave Unit 1546496P Jersey City, NJ	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,903	$1.53	17d	1	1.11mi
93 Pearsall Ave Jersey City, NJ	3.0	1.5	2000	$3,995	$2.00	8d	1	1.13mi
124 Winfield Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	5.0	3.0	2000	$3,350	$1.68	22d	1	1.14mi
124 Winfield Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	5.0	3.0	2000	$3,300	$1.65	5d	1	1.14mi
11 Marcy Ave Unit 1 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	17d	1	1.17mi
15 Alexander Ct Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.5	1866	$3,950	$2.12	24d	1	1.22mi
76 Condict St Jersey City, NJ	5.0	3.5	3000	$6,500	$2.17	22d	1	1.44mi
208 Shearwater Ct W #15 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.5	2180	$6,800	$3.12	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 364-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $549,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,347 · $529/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,008 · $834/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,662/yr (+$305/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$6,347
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,178
• − Management: −$3,178
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$22,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jersey City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3407830
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,431
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7678
• State rank: #369 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Jersey City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #2955

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jersey City, NJ
• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 294,078
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 72,161
• Household income: $76,527
• Rent vs Own: 60.0% rent · 40.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4975.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 15% Two or more races 13% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1% Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.89%
• Current HPI: 299.991
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+89.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $549,000 HCMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $624,999 HCMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $624,999 NJMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $649,999 NJMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $649,999 HCMLS
• 2022-02-11 Price Changed $1,795 RENT.
• 2019-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,347 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.