844 County Road 4511 · Hondo, TX 78861

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1995 0.95 ac lot Est $191k · at est. $6/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

Key facts

• Fully fenced land
• Mature shade trees
• 0.95 acre lot

Tags

• ONE ACRE OF LEVEL LAND
• FULLY FENCED LAND
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• PRIVATE GATED ENTRANCE
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCHES
• MULTI-LEVEL BACK PORCHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $35 semi-annually; Association transfer fee $150; Subdivision: Creekwood Ranches

Exterior

• Parking: No explicit parking details provided
• Security: Smoke alarm
• Utilities: City water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Siding exterior; Pre-owned home; Metal roof
• Construction: About 30 years old; Other foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck/balcony; Partially wooded lot with mature trees; Level lot; County view; Horses allowed (zoning permits); Approximately 1/2 to 1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level) with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2: 13 x 10; Bedroom 3: 13 x 10
• Flooring: Carpeting; Linoleum; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke alarm; Open floor plan; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Utility room inside; Laundry room; Walk-in closets; All bedrooms downstairs; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (7 x 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Hondo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#872 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,661 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
368 County Road 458	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	3mo	$94,900	$65	91
782 County Road 4511	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+15%)	12mo	$218,400	$131	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,240
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,960
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78861

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,533/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $187,261

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $44	+0% $-10	+5% $-63	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-74	+0% $-10	+5% $54	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $38	base $-10	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $189,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $189,000
16. 2026-05-21
    status Back on Market
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-04-03
    price $199,000
19. 2026-02-01
    price $219,000
20. 2025-12-09
    listed $225,000 New
21. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus
22. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus Sold 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

23. 2022-01-13
    status Pending 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

24. 2021-12-28
    status Pending
25. 2021-12-27
    historical Active Option 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

26. 2021-12-07
    price $90,000 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

27. 2021-12-06
    price $90,000
28. 2021-10-18
    price $94,900 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

29. 2021-10-18
    price $94,900

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

30. 2021-10-06
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

31. 2021-10-06
    status Back on Market 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

32. 2021-09-30
    historical Active Option 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

33. 2021-09-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

34. 2021-09-17
    listed $99,900 New 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

35. 2021-09-17
    listed $99,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    BRING all your chickens, ducks, and goats! Great Level, almost full acre fenced lot with so much potential! Private gate, oversized mature trees with lots of shade and you will LOVE having coffee on the oversized porch or multi-level back porch! Partially wooded for your privacy and a great investment property! Owner started upgrading the home but lives too far to continue. Sold as is and needs someone to make a great property into a dream location for a family or short term rentals.

36. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,533 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$926/yr (+$77/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,533
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hondo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #15726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,715

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 209.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+89.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $189,000 LERA
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $199,000 LERA
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $219,000 LERA
• 2025-12-09 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-01-13 Pending — LERA
• 2021-12-28 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-12-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-12-07 Price Changed $90,000 LERA
• 2021-12-06 Price Changed $90,000 CTXMLS
• 2021-10-18 Price Changed $94,900 LERA
• 2021-10-18 Price Changed $94,900 CTXMLS
• 2021-10-06 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2021-10-06 Relisted — LERA
• 2021-09-30 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-09-30 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-09-17 Listed $99,900 LERA
• 2021-09-17 Listed $99,900 CTXMLS
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,533 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.