150 Moonlight Graham Blvd · Ward, AR 72176

$232,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $318k · 27% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous Fordyce plan in Moonlight Meadows, located in Ward, AR! The Fordyce plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths! These new construction homes feature modern finishes for comfortable living! Two story homes have LVP flooring downstairs and carpet on stairs, in upstairs hallways, and in bedrooms and closets. Single story plans have LVP throughout common areas and carpet in all bedrooms and closets. In the kitchen and bathrooms, you’ll find beautiful granite countertops. Each home will feature Hardie® siding per plan. These homes come with a programmable thermostat! 10-year limited Homebuyer’s Warranty! All photos are stock photos, representative of plan only and may vary a

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Hardie siding
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDIE SIDING
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate lot dimensions 50 x 130 (about 0.15 acre)
• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, Conventional loans or Cash; Annual special improvement tax approximately $495
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: New construction; Plans & specs listed for size and acreage
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Hardie board exterior; Paved road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Smoke detectors; Granite slab kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,453 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,688
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,891 (0%)	4mo	$229,000	$121	79
21 Libra Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$172	56
20 Libra Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+6%)	5mo	$345,000	$173	51
18 Libra Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,006 (+6%)	6mo	$339,900	$169	49
19 Libra Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (-6%)	7mo	$309,000	$174	47
15 Libra Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (+2%)	18mo	$319,000	$166	43
10 Libra Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (-1%)	20mo	$315,000	$168	43
23 Libra Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,067 (+9%)	6mo	$345,000	$167	43
13 Libra Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (+4%)	17mo	$329,900	$167	40
26 Poplar Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-14%)	10mo	$233,000	$144	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $43,818
• Equity at exit: $136,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $142,938
• Equity at exit: $239,838

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $199,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-146	+0% $-226	+5% $-307	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-297	+0% $-226	+5% $-156	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-167	base $-226	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $232,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $232,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $232,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $232,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $232,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $232,000 CARMLS