2327 Lemur Dr · Holiday, FL 34690

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1970 4,250 sqft lot Est $165k · 7% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Holiday, Florida! This charming property is situated near shopping, theaters, beaches, and waterfront dining, just ten minutes from Key Vista Nature Park and a convenient 45-minute drive to downtown Tampa. Immerse yourself in the appeal of this meticulously remodeled home, featuring two spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms (including a private bath in the master suite), all set on a freshly manicured corner lot. The property boasts luxurious tile showers, elegant marble countertops, and a chef’s kitchen equipped with a modern island and brand-new stainless-steel appliances. Enjoy the added convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer, complemented by stylish new plank flooring

Key facts

• 4,250 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: 0.1 acre (approximately); Lot size reported as 0.1 acre
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $32; Total annual fees: $384; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo/association fee: $32; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); 1 story (multi/split levels); Facing East; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Other foundation; Built on a single-wide body type
• Exterior features: Storage; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Elevator in building
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.51%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2402 Prestige Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-12%)	9mo	$145,000	$143	67
1850 Mary Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	1mo	$114,000	$108	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,045
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,577
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,417/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $419	+0% $375	+5% $332	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $306	+0% $375	+5% $445	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $414	base $375	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	25d	1	0.12mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.27mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	25d	1	0.28mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.31mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.32mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	25d	1	0.40mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.42mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	0.49mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	0.54mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.56mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	15d	1	0.71mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.77mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.79mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	0.81mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.83mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	5d	1	0.84mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	0.85mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	15d	1	0.86mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	0.87mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	0.91mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	0.91mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	0.93mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	3d	13	0.93mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	0.94mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.95mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	5d	1	0.95mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	12d	1	0.99mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	25d	1	0.99mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	25d	1	1.00mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	25d	1	1.00mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	2d	1	1.06mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	25d	1	1.13mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	1.16mi
1330 Chancellor Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,550	$1.86	25d	1	1.19mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	5d	1	1.20mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	15d	1	1.22mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	25d	1	1.22mi
5913 Appletree Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,300	$2.24	18d	1	1.23mi
3421 Tricon Ln #12 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,095	$1.26	0d	1	1.28mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	5d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $153,000 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $153,000 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $153,000 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $153,000 Active 273 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $153,000 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-01-22
   status Active
8. 2025-01-24
   status Pending
9. 2025-01-17
   price $153,000
10. 2024-11-25
    price $162,000
11. 2024-11-03
    price $163,000
12. 2024-10-08
    price $180,000
13. 2024-09-04
    price $196,200
14. 2024-09-03
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2024-07-11
    historical
16. 2024-03-23
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$1,417
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $2,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$520
• After-tax cash flow: $3,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-03 Price Changed $163,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $196,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-23 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,417 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.