18 Sage Ave · Boles Acres, NM 88310

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1965 9,801 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living just outside the city limits of Alamogordo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,076 square feet of comfortable space. In addition to the 2 bedrooms, there is a bonus room for additional space. A storage shed adds space for tool. Recent exterior updates include newer stucco and fresh exterior paint, and the roof is approximately six years old—providing added peace of mind. A great opportunity for a first-time buyer, investor, or anyone seeking value just minutes from town. More pictures coming soon!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Newer stucco
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• NEWER STUCCO
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#47 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 16329% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,026
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $27,609
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $418	+0% $385	+5% $353	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $331	+0% $385	+5% $439	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $414	base $385	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $700
18. 2026-04-20
    price $120,000 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Affordable living just outside the city limits of Alamogordo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,076 square feet of comfortable space. In addition to the 2 bedrooms, there is a bonus room for additional space. A storage shed adds space for tool. Recent exterior updates include newer stucco and fresh exterior paint, and the roof is approximately six years old—providing added peace of mind. A great opportunity for a first-time buyer, investor, or anyone seeking value just minutes from town. More pictures coming soon!

19. 2026-03-25
    price $125,000 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Affordable living just outside the city limits of Alamogordo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,076 square feet of comfortable space. In addition to the 2 bedrooms, there is a bonus room for additional space. A storage shed adds space for tool. Recent exterior updates include newer stucco and fresh exterior paint, and the roof is approximately six years old—providing added peace of mind. A great opportunity for a first-time buyer, investor, or anyone seeking value just minutes from town. More pictures coming soon!

20. 2026-03-20
    price $129,000 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Affordable living just outside the city limits of Alamogordo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,076 square feet of comfortable space. In addition to the 2 bedrooms, there is a bonus room for additional space. A storage shed adds space for tool. Recent exterior updates include newer stucco and fresh exterior paint, and the roof is approximately six years old—providing added peace of mind. A great opportunity for a first-time buyer, investor, or anyone seeking value just minutes from town. More pictures coming soon!

21. 2026-02-24
    listed $130,000 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Affordable living just outside the city limits of Alamogordo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,076 square feet of comfortable space. In addition to the 2 bedrooms, there is a bonus room for additional space. A storage shed adds space for tool. Recent exterior updates include newer stucco and fresh exterior paint, and the roof is approximately six years old—providing added peace of mind. A great opportunity for a first-time buyer, investor, or anyone seeking value just minutes from town. More pictures coming soon!

22. 2021-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $920 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$695
• After-tax cash flow: $3,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Boles Acres

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #12466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boles Acres, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 696
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $700 Avail
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $120,000 OCAOR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $125,000 OCAOR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $129,000 OCAOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $130,000 OCAOR
• 2021-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.