Plan 1245 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78073

$168,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · SingleFamily · 353 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Front porch
• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• FRONT PORCH
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $168,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $226,625.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,625
• List price: $168,995
• Delta: -25.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12926 Bone Dry Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,245 (0%)	2mo	$182,931	$147	92
4614 Legacy Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	2mo	$179,999	$143	71
4611 Legacy Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	0mo	$174,999	$139	70
4623 Legacy Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	2mo	$180,999	$144	70
4635 Legacy Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	3mo	$188,999	$150	70
4603 Legacy Pt	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	4mo	$208,999	$166	69
12907 Jeopardy Ave	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,389 (+12%)	4mo	$203,898	$147	66
5606 Franklin Hls	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	1mo	$264,295	$190	47
5622 Franklin Hls	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	2mo	$266,475	$192	46
5635 Franklin Hls	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	1mo	$273,110	$197	45
5626 Franklin Hls	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	3mo	$266,170	$192	45
1535 Elvin Smt	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+12%)	3mo	$262,855	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-482
• Equity at exit: $96,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $36,664
• Equity at exit: $145,440

Cash invested: $63,455 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,188
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$283 /mo · $3,399/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $174,241

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,656
• Closing costs: $6,799
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13139 Watson Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,617	$1.59	2d	1	0.16mi
12955 Fischer Rd Von Ormy, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,357	$1.28	23d	1	0.34mi
6002 Sliding Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,425	$1.02	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,995 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,995 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,995 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,995 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,995 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,995 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,995 Active 343 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,995 Active 342 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,995 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,995 Active 338 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,995 Active 337 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,995 Active 336 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,995 Active 335 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $168,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

15. 2026-03-27
    price $166,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-24
    price $176,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-02-27
    price $179,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-01-28
    price $169,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2025-11-10
    price $179,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

20. 2025-10-14
    price $176,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

21. 2025-09-29
    price $171,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

22. 2025-09-03
    price $169,995 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

23. 2025-06-30
    listed $167,995 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * R-15 batt exterior wall and R-38 blown ceiling insulation * Front porch * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,695
• − Property taxes: −$3,399
• − Insurance: −$1,133
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$6,593
• Taxable loss: −$8,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a swimming pool and playground, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Swimming pool — adds significant value for both resale and rental
• Both Playground — enhances appeal for families and potential renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Swimming pool — adds significant value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Playground — enhances appeal for families and potential renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $168,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $166,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $176,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $179,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $169,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $179,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $176,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $171,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $169,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Listed $167,995 Zillow