821 Quail Run · Seven Points, TX 75143

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.34 ac lot Est $127k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this 2021 singlewide sits on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in a neighborhood that backs up to the water—perfect for enjoying the lake lifestyle without the lakefront price tag. This well-designed home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a smart, functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the covered front deck, complete with stairs and a convenient ramp for easy access. The yard is framed by beautiful crape myrtles and anchored by mature shade trees, creating an inviting space for relaxing, grilling, or gathering with friends. Inside, the kitchen features a farmhouse sink, ample counter space, and an open flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a standout with a custom closet system and a spa-style bathroom boasting a large soaking tub and separate shower. Move-in ready and close to the water, this property checks all the boxes for comfort, convenience, and value. Schedule your showing today! Note: Because this home was previously moved, it will not qualify for FHA or Conventional financing.

Key facts

• Large soaking tub
• Custom closet system
• Covered front deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• CUSTOM CLOSET SYSTEM
• SPA-STYLE BATHROOM
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• MATURE SHADE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.1% in Seven Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,063 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kemp Pri (503 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 54% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.94%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,896
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
900 Quail Run	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-1%)	8mo	$125,000	$103	88
1040 Red Bird	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+14%)	13mo	$65,000	$46	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $60,313
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $158,519
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,374/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $1,289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,366	-5% $1,328	+0% $1,289	+5% $1,251	+10% $1,213
Rent	-10% $1,064	-5% $1,177	+0% $1,289	+5% $1,402	+10% $1,515
Rate	-1.0pp $1,357	-0.5pp $1,324	base $1,289	+0.5pp $1,254	+1.0pp $1,219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1340 E Cedar Creek Pkwy Kemp, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,850	$2.14	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   status Pending 1104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

   Just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this 2021 singlewide sits on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in a neighborhood that backs up to the water—perfect for enjoying the lake lifestyle without the lakefront price tag. This well-designed home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a smart, functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the covered front deck, complete with stairs and a convenient ramp for easy access. The yard is framed by beautiful crape myrtles and anchored by mature shade trees, creating an inviting space for relaxing, grilling, or gathering with friends. Inside, the kitchen features a farmhouse sink, ample counter space, and an open flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a standout with a custom closet system and a spa-style bathroom boasting a large soaking tub and separate shower. Move-in ready and close to the water, this property checks all the boxes for comfort, convenience, and value. Schedule your showing today! Note: Because this home was previously moved, it will not qualify for FHA or Conventional financing.

3. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $135,000 Active 1104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

   Just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this 2021 singlewide sits on a spacious 0.34-acre lot in a neighborhood that backs up to the water—perfect for enjoying the lake lifestyle without the lakefront price tag. This well-designed home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a smart, functional layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the covered front deck, complete with stairs and a convenient ramp for easy access. The yard is framed by beautiful crape myrtles and anchored by mature shade trees, creating an inviting space for relaxing, grilling, or gathering with friends. Inside, the kitchen features a farmhouse sink, ample counter space, and an open flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a standout with a custom closet system and a spa-style bathroom boasting a large soaking tub and separate shower. Move-in ready and close to the water, this property checks all the boxes for comfort, convenience, and value. Schedule your showing today! Note: Because this home was previously moved, it will not qualify for FHA or Conventional financing.

5. 2026-03-18
   listed $135,000 Active
6. 2026-03-09
   historical
7. 2026-02-18
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,374 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,374
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $14,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,406
• After-tax cash flow: $12,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 singlewide is in good condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready living experience. Potential improvements could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the space and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the space and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seven Points

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seven Points, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — HCBOR
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $135,000 HCBOR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $135,000 NTREIS