2629 Windsor Lakes Way · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$247,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,969 sqft lot Est $252k · at est. $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

Key facts

• Food prep island
• Spacious kitchen
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• FOOD PREP ISLAND
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FINISHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 890 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,855 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2629 Windsor Lakes Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,262 (0%)	0mo	$245,000	$194	100
2775 Monroe Lakes Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+6%)	16mo	$305,000	$227	67
2837 Grand Finale St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	9mo	$285,485	$200	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,699
• Equity at exit: $36,903

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-78,480
• Equity at exit: $21,399

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 890
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,894/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,410

Max offer price $224,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-58	+0% $-128	+5% $-198	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-217	+0% $-128	+5% $-39	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-65	base $-128	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,875
• Closing costs: $7,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2555 Bear Creek Way Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,835	$1.11	24d	1	0.98mi
2858 Buck Creek Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,829	$1.11	17d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-15
   listed $247,500 Active
4. 2024-04-24
   status Pending 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

5. 2024-04-24
   historical 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

6. 2024-04-12
   price $320,000 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

7. 2024-03-25
   price $326,000 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

8. 2024-03-18
   price $327,000 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

9. 2024-03-01
   price $328,000 1410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

   *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

10. 2024-02-03
    listed $330,000 Active 1410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1410 chars)

    *ELIGIBLE FOR USDA $0 DOWN FINANCING* Immaculate and inviting, this stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom executive series home by KB Homes presents an exceptional living experience with an array of sophisticated finishes. Revel in the seamless blend of comfort and style with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout this thoughtfully designed open-concept yet split floor plan layout. Cooking enthusiasts will adore the state-of-the-art kitchen, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a chic farmhouse sink, and sleek stainless steel appliances. Whether you're crafting a family feast or entertaining guests, the kitchen and living combo becomes a perfect backdrop for memorable moments. Retreat to your tranquil owner's suite, where you'll find a spa-like bathroom adorned with gorgeous decorative tile floors. The walk-in shower and dual vanity sinks create a serene space to unwind. Revel in the privacy and beauty of nature on your screened lanai, set against the lush backdrop of your fully fenced preserve lot. Anabelle Island isn't just a place to live it's a lifestyle. With future luxury pool and cabana amenities, residents will enjoy an opulent community experience. What's more, the highest standards in education are within reach in top-rated Clay County schools. This home truly checks all the boxes for those seeking a blend of sophistication and functionality. Don't wait! Schedule your tour today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,894 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,894 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,864
• − Property taxes: −$5,894
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,200
• Taxable loss: −$5,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $-172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3/2 home is in good condition with recent renovations, offering a spacious kitchen and bathrooms. The property is ready for a new owner and has a great template for a 1st time home buyer.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics
• Resale new bathroom vanity — improves bathroom functionality and aesthetics
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale new bathroom vanity — improves bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $247,500 realMLS
• 2024-04-24 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $320,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $326,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $327,000 realMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $328,000 realMLS
• 2024-02-03 Listed $330,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+160.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,894 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.