12137 Black Oak Dr · Middletown, CA 95461

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1962 8,712 sqft lot $253/sqft · 17% below area Est $265k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TURNKEY IN LOCH LOMOND VILLAGE. Perched on the top of Black Oak Drive this newly renovated residence boasts high ceilings with original wood, luxury vinyl plank in the kitchen and common living areas, and brand new carpet in the 2 spacious bedrooms and the large closeted den. Enjoy views of the mountain above and the vernal lake below from the redwood deck. The exceptionally large driveway provides ample parking or enough space to build a garage or carport. Walking distance to Loch Lomond Resort complex which features a restaurant/bar, a spring fed swimming pool, and a small market for your last minute cooking needs. Seller willing to consider 2.5% buyers concession at closing.

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Redwood deck
• High ceilings

Tags

• TURNKEY
• NEWLY RENOVATED
• HIGH CEILINGS
• REDWOOD DECK
• LARGE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1; Total units: 1; No common walls; Parcel number available
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Community features: Golf course, rural, biking, mountainous, BLM/National Forest access

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry level 1
• Construction: No ADU; Public records used as year built source
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Has patio; Rural setting with golf course and mountain/biking access nearby; Located on a 0–1 unit/acre lot; Access via county road; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Propane oven; Propane stove; Laminate counters; Dining/eating area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Living room balcony; One level; Entry below street level
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#320 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary (223 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Vista Middle (375 students, 76% FRL); Kelseyville High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 540 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $219k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,121
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -17.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12236 Western Pne	0.04mi	2/2.0	950 (+10%)	2mo	$279,000	$294	75
10466 Redwood Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0	740 (-14%)	6mo	$179,000	$242	55
10537 Foothill Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	768 (-11%)	24mo	$165,000	$215	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-18,279
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,163
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $333	+0% $271	+5% $209	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $186	+0% $271	+5% $355	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $326	base $271	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $219,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 37 DOM
19. 2026-04-23
    listed $229,000 Active 686-char remark
20. 2025-10-17
    historical
21. 2025-09-18
    price $240,000
22. 2025-06-17
    listed $248,000 Active
23. 2024-12-11
    historical
24. 2024-08-08
    price $260,000
25. 2024-06-12
    listed $270,000 Active
26. 2001-04-12
    soldstatus $80,000
27. 2001-04-11
    soldstatus $80,000
28. 2000-09-22
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥97°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #10792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+173.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-03 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $248,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2001-04-12 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CRMLS
• 2001-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-22 Listed $80,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,105 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.