3863 Grist Ml · Douglasville, GA 30135

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1972 0.56 ac lot $142/sqft · 16% below area Est $333k · 16% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to Start Owning and Stop Renting? THIS IS THE ONE! Welcome home to 3863 Grist Mill Drive in Douglasville where comfort, value, and a fresh start come together perfectly for first-time homeowners and baby boomers ready to downsize! From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the inviting curb appeal and the peaceful feel of this established neighborhood, setting the tone for what’s inside. Step through the front door into a bright, open living space filled with natural light perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting family and friends. The layout flows effortlessly into the dining area and functional kitchen, offering plenty of cabinet space and room to cook, gather, and make memories. As you continue your tour, you’ll find comfortable bedrooms that provide the perfect retreat, including a private primary suite and additional rooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy your own backyard space with endless possibilities whether it’s quiet mornings with coffee, gardening, or weekend get-togethers. Best of all, this home is completely move-in ready, allowing you to skip the hassle and start enjoying your new chapter right away. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to simplify your lifestyle, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience, comfort, and affordability at a great price making it an opportunity you don’t want to miss.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Douglasville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#82 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 610 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $279k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,210 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,154
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3863 Grist Ml	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,958 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$133	100
3784 Tackett Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+3%)	9mo	$289,000	$143	75
3685 Tackett Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+7%)	1mo	$285,000	$136	73
4880 Bald Eagle Way	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+6%)	2mo	$332,000	$159	70
4348 Tillage Path	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-13%)	10mo	$334,000	$196	66
4800 Bald Eagle Way	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,070 (+6%)	2mo	$305,000	$147	66
4118 Twig Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,864 (-5%)	4mo	$210,000	$113	62
4438 Tuckahoe Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,022 (+3%)	11mo	$287,500	$142	58
4249 Doublegate Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (-11%)	2mo	$373,500	$214	56
4133 Twig Ct	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$158	55
4066 Wedgefield Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,754 (-10%)	3mo	$329,000	$188	48
4132 High Country Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+7%)	9mo	$329,999	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-62,068
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,091
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30135

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,559/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $248,702

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-93	+0% $-172	+5% $-250	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-253	+0% $-172	+5% $-90	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-101	base $-172	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 Auger Trl Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2302	$2,050	$0.89	6d	1	0.25mi
4203 Baler Dr Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,895	$1.37	14d	1	0.28mi
4204 Rocky Face Dr Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,700	$0.96	4d	1	0.31mi
4548 White Rd Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	2076	$2,165	$1.04	0d	1	0.65mi
4599 White Rd Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,815	$1.16	44d	1	0.76mi
4031 Oak Stone Dr Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	1898	$1,950	$1.03	14d	1	0.83mi
4110 Oak Stone Dr Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,950	$1.08	44d	1	0.87mi
4217 Arnolds Mill Opas Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2356	$2,275	$0.97	44d	1	0.93mi
3445 Anneewakee Falls Pkwy Douglasville, GA	2.0	1.0	1501	$1,350	$0.90	44d	1	0.97mi
4031 Daylily Way Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,869	$1.28	18d	1	0.97mi
3332 Lowland Dr Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2167	$2,099	$0.97	25d	1	1.08mi
3751 Monticello St Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2091	$2,300	$1.10	21d	1	1.11mi
4014 Sitka Dr Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,899	$1.24	44d	1	1.13mi
3343 Clawing Hawk Way Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.5	1915	$2,075	$1.08	45d	1	1.17mi
3783 Chapel Hill Rd Douglasville, GA	4.0	3.0	2032	$1,955	$0.96	14d	1	1.29mi
3729 Winding Trail Ct Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,830	$1.28	14d	1	1.29mi
3112 Berthas Overlook Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	2331	$2,100	$0.90	6d	1	1.30mi
4396 Central Church Rd Douglasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,829	$1.14	44d	1	1.33mi
4250 Winding Trail Way Douglasville, GA	4.0	2.5	1902	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $279,000 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-04-09
    listed $279,000 Active 1433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Looking to Start Owning and Stop Renting? THIS IS THE ONE! Welcome home to 3863 Grist Mill Drive in Douglasville where comfort, value, and a fresh start come together perfectly for first-time homeowners and baby boomers ready to downsize! From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the inviting curb appeal and the peaceful feel of this established neighborhood, setting the tone for what's inside. Step through the front door into a bright, open living space filled with natural light perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting family and friends. The layout flows effortlessly into the dining area and functional kitchen, offering plenty of cabinet space and room to cook, gather, and make memories. As you continue your tour, you'll find comfortable bedrooms that provide the perfect retreat, including a private primary suite and additional rooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy your own backyard space with endless possibilities whether it's quiet mornings with coffee, gardening, or weekend get-togethers. Best of all, this home is completely move-in ready, allowing you to skip the hassle and start enjoying your new chapter right away. Whether you're buying your first home or looking to simplify your lifestyle, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience, comfort, and affordability at a great price making it an opportunity you don't want to miss.

11. 2026-04-09
    listed $279,000 New 1397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Looking to Start Owning and Stop Renting? THIS IS THE ONE! Welcome home to 3863 Grist Mill Drive in Douglasville where comfort, value, and a fresh start come together perfectly for first-time homeowners and baby boomers ready to downsize! From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the inviting curb appeal and the peaceful feel of this established neighborhood, setting the tone for what's inside. Step through the front door into a bright, open living space filled with natural light perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting family and friends. The layout flows effortlessly into the dining area and functional kitchen, offering plenty of cabinet space and room to cook, gather, and make memories. As you continue your tour, you'll find comfortable bedrooms that provide the perfect retreat, including a private primary suite and additional rooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy your own backyard space with endless possibilities whether it's quiet mornings with coffee, gardening, or weekend get-togethers. Best of all, this home is completely move-in ready, allowing you to skip the hassle and start enjoying your new chapter right away. Whether you're buying your first home or looking to simplify your lifestyle, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience, comfort, and affordability at a great price making it an opportunity you don't want to miss.

12. 2026-04-08
    historical $279,000 1397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

    Looking to Start Owning and Stop Renting? THIS IS THE ONE! Welcome home to 3863 Grist Mill Drive in Douglasville where comfort, value, and a fresh start come together perfectly for first-time homeowners and baby boomers ready to downsize! From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the inviting curb appeal and the peaceful feel of this established neighborhood, setting the tone for what’s inside. Step through the front door into a bright, open living space filled with natural light perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting family and friends. The layout flows effortlessly into the dining area and functional kitchen, offering plenty of cabinet space and room to cook, gather, and make memories. As you continue your tour, you’ll find comfortable bedrooms that provide the perfect retreat, including a private primary suite and additional rooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy your own backyard space with endless possibilities whether it’s quiet mornings with coffee, gardening, or weekend get-togethers. Best of all, this home is completely move-in ready, allowing you to skip the hassle and start enjoying your new chapter right away. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to simplify your lifestyle, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience, comfort, and affordability at a great price making it an opportunity you don’t want to miss.

13. 2026-04-08
    historical $279,000 1433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

    Looking to Start Owning and Stop Renting? THIS IS THE ONE! Welcome home to 3863 Grist Mill Drive in Douglasville where comfort, value, and a fresh start come together perfectly for first-time homeowners and baby boomers ready to downsize! From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the inviting curb appeal and the peaceful feel of this established neighborhood, setting the tone for what’s inside. Step through the front door into a bright, open living space filled with natural light perfect for relaxing evenings or hosting family and friends. The layout flows effortlessly into the dining area and functional kitchen, offering plenty of cabinet space and room to cook, gather, and make memories. As you continue your tour, you’ll find comfortable bedrooms that provide the perfect retreat, including a private primary suite and additional rooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy your own backyard space with endless possibilities whether it’s quiet mornings with coffee, gardening, or weekend get-togethers. Best of all, this home is completely move-in ready, allowing you to skip the hassle and start enjoying your new chapter right away. Whether you’re buying your first home or looking to simplify your lifestyle, this property offers the perfect blend of convenience, comfort, and affordability at a great price making it an opportunity you don’t want to miss.

14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-07-31
    listed $299,725 New
16. 2018-11-13
    soldstatus $169,000
17. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $169,900 Sold
18. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $169,900 Sold
19. 2018-10-03
    status Under Contract
20. 2018-10-02
    status Pending
21. 2018-09-25
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
22. 2018-09-20
    price $169,899
23. 2018-09-20
    price $169,899
24. 2018-09-05
    listed $169,900 Active
25. 2018-09-05
    listed $169,900 New
26. 2018-07-26
    soldstatus $77,000
27. 2018-07-13
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold
28. 2018-07-13
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold
29. 2018-01-30
    status Under Contract
30. 2018-01-30
    status Pending
31. 2018-01-13
    listed $112,000 Active
32. 2018-01-13
    listed $112,000 New
33. 2008-05-20
    soldstatus $119,900
34. 2007-08-23
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,559 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,559
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Douglasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #6971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Douglas County · 141,416 people
• City population: 114,380
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 66,800
• Household income: $94,526
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 890.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.50%
• Current HPI: 223.9534
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+132.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $279,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $279,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $279,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $279,000 FMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $299,725 GAMLS
• 2018-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $169,900 GAMLS
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $169,900 FMLS
• 2018-10-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2018-10-02 Pending — FMLS
• 2018-09-25 Contingent — FMLS
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $169,899 GAMLS
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $169,899 FMLS
• 2018-09-05 Listed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2018-09-05 Listed $169,900 FMLS
• 2018-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-13 Sold (MLS) $77,000 GAMLS
• 2018-07-13 Sold (MLS) $77,000 FMLS
• 2018-01-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2018-01-30 Pending — FMLS
• 2018-01-13 Listed $112,000 GAMLS
• 2018-01-13 Listed $112,000 FMLS
• 2008-05-20 Sold (MLS) $119,900 FMLS
• 2007-08-23 Listed $119,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,559 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.