10625 S Cherokee Ln · Three Points, AZ 85736

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1993 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the city to this remodeled 3BD/2BA home featuring nearly an acre of land with stunning mountain views. The interior boasts a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, a split-bedroom layout for privacy, and brand-new vinyl flooring. Zoned GR1 for horses and livestock, the property includes a covered deck for sunset viewing and a newly cleared south driveway for easy RV access. Complete with a brand-new HVAC system to be installed prior to the close of escrow, this move-in-ready desert homestead features easy seller-financing options--the seller will even consider other real estate, mobile homes, or notes as a partial down payment.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Split-bedroom layout
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• VINYL FLOORING
• ZONED GR1 FOR HORSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Pima County - GR1
• HOA & community: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Built-Up reflective roof; Built in 800 sq ft (living area 800)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link fencing; East/West exposure; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Gas Range; Accessible approach with ramp; Wrought iron security door
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $180k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,664 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $89,619
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $270,236
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85736

• Home prices YoY: 29.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $156,964

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $179,900 Active
15. 2026-04-07
    historical
16. 2026-01-07
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2025-09-25
    soldstatus $99,544
18. 2025-08-02
    historical
19. 2025-05-20
    status Active
20. 2025-05-20
    price $160,000
21. 2025-03-18
    historical Active Contingent
22. 2025-03-17
    status Active
23. 2025-02-12
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2025-02-12
    historical
25. 2025-02-07
    listed $110,000 Active
26. 2009-01-29
    historical
27. 2008-06-01
    listed $149,000
28. 2008-05-06
    historical
29. 2007-09-01
    listed $159,000
30. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $55,000
31. 2006-10-30
    soldstatus $55,000
32. 2006-07-20
    listed $65,000
33. 2005-06-09
    historical
34. 2004-12-10
    listed $60,000
35. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $26,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 102.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 4,249

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scottish 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.66%
• Current HPI: 347.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+568.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $179,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-07 Listed $189,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $99,544 Public Records
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-18 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-17 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-12 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-07 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2008-06-01 Listed $149,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-05-06 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-09-01 Listed $159,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-07-20 Listed $65,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-06-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2004-12-10 Listed $60,000 MLSSAZ
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $587 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.