Duplex
104 E College Ave · York, PA
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 10.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.1/10.0
- Rent growth +4.1/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.8/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$176,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Opportunity for investor or owner occupant w/ conv or 203k financing. Semi-detached 4 BDRM, 2 full baths, dining, family & living rooms, walk up attic & 2 car det garg. Possible 2nd kitchen on 2nd level. Property was set up as a 2-family home one time but is zoned single family residence. Living room on first level could be used as 5th bedroom and walk-up attic has potential for additional living space. This is a Fannie Mae property.
Key facts
- Flexible lease terms
- 2,422 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1×1bd/1.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $177k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $404/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
- Recommended offer: $172k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.0% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
- York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,492/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1360% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $16k; list at $177k implies a 1006% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.41% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.56%
- DSCR
- 1.87
- GRM
- 5.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $216,764
- Comps found
- 3
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 W King St | 0.26mi | 5/4.0 (-1) | 2,276 (-1%) | 6mo | $215,000 | $94 | 67 |
| 49 W Princess St | 0.24mi | 5/3.0 (-1) | 2,462 (+7%) | 23mo | $240,000 | $97 | 49 |
| 339 W Philadelphia St | 0.73mi | 6/2.0 | 2,522 (+9%) | 6mo | $180,000 | $71 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 15.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.64×
- Total profit
- $31,486
- Equity at exit
- $26,376
- IRR
- 26.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.67×
- Total profit
- $132,043
- Equity at exit
- $15,295
Cash invested: $49,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17401
- Home prices YoY
- -16.5%
- Rents YoY
- 6.4%
- Active inventory
- 63
- Price-to-rent
- 12.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,492 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$928
- Tax from tax record
- −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
- Insurance
- −$74
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$523
- Net cashflow
- $807
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1× unit | 1 | 1 | $1,150 |
| 1× unit | 3 | 1 | $1,342 |
| Total (2 units) | $2,492 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,225
- Closing costs
- $5,307
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 213 Kurtz Ave York, PA | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1921 | $1,850 | $0.96 | 13d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 330 Smyser St York, PA | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1634 | $1,425 | $0.87 | 43d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 26 N West St York, PA | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2100 | $2,200 | $1.05 | 21d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 121 S Belvidere Ave Unit 121 York, PA | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1846 | $1,450 | $0.79 | 43d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 709 W Princess St York, PA | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1829 | $1,425 | $0.78 | 43d | 1 | 1.17mi |
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-04-24status Pending
-
2026-04-18price $176,900
-
2026-04-18status Active
-
2026-04-01status Pending
-
2026-03-05$179,900 Active
-
2016-01-21soldstatus $16,000 449-char remark
Show marketing remark (449 chars)
Opportunity for investor or owner occupant w/ conv or 203k financing. Semi-detached 4 BDRM, 2 full baths, dining, family & living rooms, walk up attic & 2 car det garg. Possible 2nd kitchen on 2nd level. Property was set up as a 2-family home one time but is zoned single family residence. Living room on first level could be used as 5th bedroom and walk-up attic has potential for additional living space. This is a Fannie Mae property.
-
2016-01-07historical 449-char remark
Show marketing remark (449 chars)
Opportunity for investor or owner occupant w/ conv or 203k financing. Semi-detached 4 BDRM, 2 full baths, dining, family & living rooms, walk up attic & 2 car det garg. Possible 2nd kitchen on 2nd level. Property was set up as a 2-family home one time but is zoned single family residence. Living room on first level could be used as 5th bedroom and walk-up attic has potential for additional living space. This is a Fannie Mae property.
-
2015-10-26$22,500 449-char remark
Show marketing remark (449 chars)
Opportunity for investor or owner occupant w/ conv or 203k financing. Semi-detached 4 BDRM, 2 full baths, dining, family & living rooms, walk up attic & 2 car det garg. Possible 2nd kitchen on 2nd level. Property was set up as a 2-family home one time but is zoned single family residence. Living room on first level could be used as 5th bedroom and walk-up attic has potential for additional living space. This is a Fannie Mae property.
-
2005-10-18historical
-
2004-10-18$40,000
-
2001-09-27historical
-
2001-08-01$29,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,920 · $160/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,358 · $196/mo
- Expected delta
- +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 22.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $29,904
- − Mortgage interest
- −$9,909
- − Property taxes
- −$1,920
- − Insurance
- −$884
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,392
- − Management
- −$2,392
- − Depreciation
- −$5,146
- Taxable income
- $7,260
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,742
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,945/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- York City SD
- NCES district ID
- 4226820
- Math proficiency
- 4% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 16% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $29,470
- Composite
- 7.61/100
- National rank
- #9943
- State rank
- #534 of 539 in PA
Livability — York
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #427
- US rank
- #3987
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- York, PA
- County
- York County · 278,806 people
- City population
- 184,764
- Metro
- York-Hanover, PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,570
- Household income
- $42,826
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1360.0
Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 454,205 people
- By 2030
- 457,407 · +0.7%
- By 2040
- 457,529 · +0.7%
- By 2050
- 448,261 · -1.3%
- By 2075
- 427,388 · -5.9%
- By 2100
- 384,218 · -15.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 39% White 31% Black 24% Two or more races 15%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 22% Dominican 10%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 14% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%
Political lean MEDSL · York
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -63.82%
- Current HPI
- 323.5537
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 6.37%
- Metro
- York-Hanover, PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
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Price history
+491.6% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-18 Price Changed $176,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-18 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-03-05 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-01-21 Sold (MLS) $16,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-01-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2015-10-26 Listed $22,500 BRIGHT MLS
- 2005-10-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2004-10-18 Listed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2001-09-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2001-08-01 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
Property tax history
+0.7%/yrLatest (2025): $1,920 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…